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Marcus McGhee
"The Maniac"
10-2-0
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Bantamweight
Benardo Sopaj
"Lion King"
12-3-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Benardo Sopaj 'Lion King'
55.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.7% 54.3%
Benardo Sopaj
LightGBM currently viewing
44.7% 55.3%
Benardo Sopaj
Logistic (Core)
54.0% 46.0%
Marcus McGhee
CatBoost
48.5% 51.5%
Benardo Sopaj
Ensemble
43.8% 56.2%
Benardo Sopaj
No Age · CatBoost
63.9% 36.1%
Marcus McGhee
No Age · Ensemble
58.7% 41.3%
Marcus McGhee
No Age · LightGBM
60.7% 39.3%
Marcus McGhee
No Age · Logistic (Core)
68.2% 31.8%
Marcus McGhee
No Age · XGBoost
56.6% 43.4%
Marcus McGhee
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
49.7% 50.3%
Benardo Sopaj
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
42.8% 57.2%
Benardo Sopaj
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
40.7% 59.3%
Benardo Sopaj
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
52.1% 47.9%
Marcus McGhee
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
42.9% 57.1%
Benardo Sopaj
With Odds · CatBoost
46.9% 53.1%
Benardo Sopaj
With Odds · Ensemble
45.2% 54.8%
Benardo Sopaj
With Odds · LightGBM
45.1% 54.9%
Benardo Sopaj
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
54.0% 46.0%
Marcus McGhee
With Odds · XGBoost
40.0% 60.0%
Benardo Sopaj
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
56%
Decision
26%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision56.4%
KO / TKO25.8%
Submission17.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.5%
Round 230.5%
Round 3+22.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 44% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Marcus McGhee
Benardo Sopaj
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.39
23%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.63
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 58
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Benardo Sopaj -1.28
7%
Age
Marcus McGhee 36.4 yrs
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -18%
4%
Age
Benardo Sopaj 26.0 yrs
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -3
3%
Fights per year
Marcus McGhee 1.93
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Benardo Sopaj 3.20
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Marcus McGhee -0.09
3%
Distance strike defense
Marcus McGhee 57%
3%
Striking accuracy
Benardo Sopaj 52%
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Marcus McGhee 3.53
2%
← pushes toward Marcus McGhee pushes toward Benardo Sopaj →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Marcus McGhee

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Benardo Sopaj

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
12.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W DEC
L KO
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Marcus McGhee
ADVANTAGE
Benardo Sopaj
Striking Accuracy
42.8%
+9.5%
52.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.58
+0.78
3.80
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.53
+0.28
3.81
Striking Defense
54.2%
+0.3%
54.5%
Takedown Accuracy
27.8%
+15.2%
43.0%
Takedown Defense
68.0%
+0.4%
68.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.28
+0.16
0.44
Avg Control Time (sec)
68.44
+7.47
75.91
Strikes Per Round
20.92
+2.88
18.04
Head Strike %
67.4%
+4.6%
72.0%
Body Strike %
17.9%
+3.3%
14.6%
Leg Strike %
14.7%
+1.3%
13.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+13.3%
66.7%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+6.7%
33.3%