Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29-12-0
VS
Yadier del Valle
"The Cuban Problem"
10-0-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
currently viewing
41.9%
58.1%
Yadier del Valle
LightGBM
35.7%
64.3%
Yadier del Valle
Logistic (Core)
30.9%
69.1%
Yadier del Valle
CatBoost
37.6%
62.4%
Yadier del Valle
Ensemble
29.9%
70.1%
Yadier del Valle
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
28%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Darren Elkins
Yadier del Valle
14%
10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Darren Elkins
pushes toward Yadier del Valle →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Darren Elkins
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
KO
W
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Yadier del Valle
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
SUB
Height:
175 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
175 cm
Stance:
Southpaw