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Cody Chovancek
"The Best Fisherman in MMA"
9-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Bantamweight
SuYoung You
"Yoo-Jitsu"
16-3-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Cody Chovancek 'The Best Fisherman in MMA'
57.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
59.9% 40.1%
Cody Chovancek
LightGBM
56.2% 43.8%
Cody Chovancek
Logistic (Core)
58.1% 41.9%
Cody Chovancek
CatBoost
53.5% 46.5%
Cody Chovancek
Ensemble
52.5% 47.5%
Cody Chovancek
No Age · CatBoost
51.1% 48.9%
Cody Chovancek
No Age · Ensemble
53.9% 46.1%
Cody Chovancek
No Age · LightGBM
56.6% 43.4%
Cody Chovancek
No Age · Logistic (Core)
56.4% 43.6%
Cody Chovancek
No Age · XGBoost
56.1% 43.9%
Cody Chovancek
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
51.2% 48.8%
Cody Chovancek
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
50.4% 49.6%
Cody Chovancek
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
53.2% 46.8%
Cody Chovancek
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
58.5% 41.5%
Cody Chovancek
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
48.8% 51.2%
SuYoung You
With Odds · CatBoost
52.8% 47.2%
Cody Chovancek
With Odds · Ensemble
55.5% 44.5%
Cody Chovancek
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
57.7% 42.3%
Cody Chovancek
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
58.1% 41.9%
Cody Chovancek
With Odds · XGBoost
60.4% 39.6%
Cody Chovancek
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision53.9%
KO / TKO28.6%
Submission17.5%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.7%
Round 230.7%
Round 3+18.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Cody Chovancek
SuYoung You
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -10
18%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
SuYoung You -1.12
14%
Age
Cody Chovancek 28.2 yrs
12%
Avg takedowns attempted
SuYoung You 5.10
7%
Round 1 strike output
SuYoung You 10.34
5%
Body strikes absorbed per min
SuYoung You 0.37
4%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cody Chovancek
3%
Striking defense
SuYoung You 63%
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Cody Chovancek 9
3%
Distance strike defense
SuYoung You 70%
3%
Striking defense
Cody Chovancek
2%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
2%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
2%
← pushes toward Cody Chovancek pushes toward SuYoung You →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Cody Chovancek

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Switch

SuYoung You

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
12.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 165 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Cody Chovancek
ADVANTAGE
SuYoung You
Striking Accuracy
0.0%
+48.6%
48.6%
Strikes Landed/Min
0.00
+2.48
2.48
Strikes Absorbed/Min
0.00
+2.46
2.46
Striking Defense
0.0%
+63.5%
63.5%
Takedown Accuracy
0.0%
+37.8%
37.8%
Takedown Defense
0.0%
+59.9%
59.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.00
+0.12
0.12
Avg Control Time (sec)
0.00
+87.83
87.83
Strikes Per Round
0.00
+13.79
13.79
Head Strike %
0.0%
+65.1%
65.1%
Body Strike %
0.0%
+19.1%
19.1%
Leg Strike %
0.0%
+15.7%
15.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+75.0%
75.0%