Drakkar Klose
16-3-1
VS
2026-09-12
UFC Fight Night: Elliott vs. Chairez
Lightweight
Tommy Gantt
11-0-0
LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Tommy Gantt
51.3% CONFIDENCE
ACTUAL RESULT — MODEL WAS CORRECT
Tommy Gantt won
Submission · Round 3 · 2:46
How It Ends
55%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision54.6%
KO / TKO30.5%
Submission14.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.1%
Round 232.6%
Round 3+16.3%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Drakkar Klose
Tommy Gantt
Avg takedowns attempted
Tommy Gantt
11%
Age
Drakkar Klose
10%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
10%
Age
Tommy Gantt
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
6%
Reach edge
Matchup
5%
Head absorption rate
Drakkar Klose
5%
Net striking dominance
Matchup
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Tommy Gantt
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Drakkar Klose
4%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Drakkar Klose
3%
Fights per year
Drakkar Klose
2%
← pushes toward Drakkar Klose pushes toward Tommy Gantt →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Drakkar Klose

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L KO
W DEC
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Tommy Gantt

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox