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Raul Rosas Jr.
"El Nino Problema"
11-1-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Bantamweight
Raoni Barcelos
21-5-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Raul Rosas Jr. 'El Nino Problema'
72.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
69.5% 30.5%
Raul Rosas Jr.
LightGBM
72.4% 27.6%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Logistic (Core)
75.5% 24.5%
Raul Rosas Jr.
CatBoost
69.3% 30.7%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Ensemble
71.1% 28.9%
Raul Rosas Jr.
market-margin__xgb-full
74.9% 25.1%
Raul Rosas Jr.
No Age · CatBoost
63.4% 36.6%
Raul Rosas Jr.
No Age · Ensemble
60.3% 39.7%
Raul Rosas Jr.
No Age · LightGBM
63.0% 37.0%
Raul Rosas Jr.
No Age · Logistic (Core)
57.3% 42.7%
Raul Rosas Jr.
No Age · XGBoost
61.2% 38.8%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
68.3% 31.7%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
65.1% 34.9%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
61.8% 38.2%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
76.5% 23.5%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
59.4% 40.6%
Raul Rosas Jr.
With Odds · CatBoost
70.6% 29.4%
Raul Rosas Jr.
With Odds · Ensemble
73.3% 26.7%
Raul Rosas Jr.
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
72.2% 27.8%
Raul Rosas Jr.
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
75.5% 24.5%
Raul Rosas Jr.
With Odds · XGBoost
69.1% 30.9%
Raul Rosas Jr.
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
20%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision62.7%
KO / TKO20.2%
Submission17.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 138.4%
Round 235.5%
Round 3+26.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Raul Rosas Jr.
Raoni Barcelos
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
30%
Avg takedowns attempted
Raul Rosas Jr. 6.59
8%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
7%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -17.44
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -14
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Raoni Barcelos 7.55
4%
Age
Raoni Barcelos 39.4 yrs
4%
Age
Raul Rosas Jr. 22.0 yrs
4%
Avg control time
Raul Rosas Jr. 129.37
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Raoni Barcelos -1.86
3%
Takedown accuracy
Raoni Barcelos 30%
3%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Raul Rosas Jr. 900
2%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.10
2%
← pushes toward Raul Rosas Jr. pushes toward Raoni Barcelos →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Raul Rosas Jr.

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Switch

Raoni Barcelos

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
14.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Raul Rosas Jr.
ADVANTAGE
Raoni Barcelos
Striking Accuracy
42.8%
+6.7%
49.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
1.75
+1.93
3.68
Strikes Absorbed/Min
1.68
+1.78
3.46
Striking Defense
55.7%
+2.5%
58.2%
Takedown Accuracy
56.6%
+26.2%
30.4%
Takedown Defense
60.7%
+16.9%
77.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.01
0.18
Avg Control Time (sec)
129.37
+40.35
89.02
Strikes Per Round
11.15
+6.82
17.96
Head Strike %
62.7%
+4.6%
67.3%
Body Strike %
19.1%
+1.3%
17.8%
Leg Strike %
18.1%
+3.3%
14.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
EVEN
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
20.0%