Roman Dolidze
15-4-0
VS
Reinier de Ridder
"RdR"
21-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
45.8%
54.2%
Reinier de Ridder
LightGBM
currently viewing
44.2%
55.8%
Reinier de Ridder
Logistic (Core)
44.2%
55.8%
Reinier de Ridder
CatBoost
44.3%
55.7%
Reinier de Ridder
Ensemble
37.2%
62.8%
Reinier de Ridder
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Roman Dolidze
Reinier de Ridder
13%
7%
7%
7%
7%
7%
5%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Roman Dolidze
pushes toward Reinier de Ridder →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Roman Dolidze
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
15.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
SUB
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Reinier de Ridder
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
14.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
Height:
193 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Roman Dolidze
ADVANTAGE
Reinier de Ridder
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate