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Josiah Harrell
"Muscle Hamster"
7-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Lightweight
Elves Brener
16-6-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Elves Brener
53.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
41.5% 58.5%
Elves Brener
LightGBM
44.8% 55.2%
Elves Brener
Logistic (Core)
52.7% 47.3%
Josiah Harrell
CatBoost
47.2% 52.8%
Elves Brener
Ensemble
43.3% 56.7%
Elves Brener
market-margin__xgb-full
67.7% 32.3%
Josiah Harrell
No Age · CatBoost
49.4% 50.6%
Elves Brener
No Age · Ensemble
49.7% 50.3%
Elves Brener
No Age · LightGBM
51.9% 48.1%
Josiah Harrell
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.8% 45.2%
Josiah Harrell
No Age · XGBoost
46.9% 53.1%
Elves Brener
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
48.3% 51.7%
Elves Brener
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
45.5% 54.5%
Elves Brener
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
46.9% 53.1%
Elves Brener
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.9% 48.1%
Josiah Harrell
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
47.0% 53.0%
Elves Brener
With Odds · CatBoost
53.9% 46.1%
Josiah Harrell
With Odds · Ensemble
56.7% 43.3%
Josiah Harrell
With Odds · LightGBM
55.0% 45.0%
Josiah Harrell
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
52.7% 47.3%
Josiah Harrell
With Odds · XGBoost
54.3% 45.7%
Josiah Harrell
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision54.3%
KO / TKO29.6%
Submission16.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.0%
Round 228.6%
Round 3+16.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Josiah Harrell
Elves Brener
Elo rating edge
Matchup -34
11%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -15
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Elves Brener -0.74
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Elves Brener 4.18
6%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -21%
6%
Age
Josiah Harrell 27.9 yrs
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Josiah Harrell 3.83
5%
Age
Elves Brener 29.0 yrs
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.08
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Josiah Harrell 7
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Josiah Harrell 181
3%
Distance strike defense
Josiah Harrell 56%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Josiah Harrell 2.81
2%
Southpaw stance edge
Matchup +1
2%
← pushes toward Josiah Harrell pushes toward Elves Brener →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Josiah Harrell

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
3.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Elves Brener

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
L DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Josiah Harrell
ADVANTAGE
Elves Brener
Striking Accuracy
45.2%
+1.6%
46.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.72
+1.59
4.31
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.83
+1.24
5.07
Striking Defense
50.0%
+2.1%
52.1%
Takedown Accuracy
33.0%
+8.3%
24.7%
Takedown Defense
55.0%
+13.1%
68.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.16
+0.07
0.24
Avg Control Time (sec)
72.25
+5.14
67.11
Strikes Per Round
14.63
+4.87
19.50
Head Strike %
61.2%
+0.5%
61.8%
Body Strike %
21.5%
+2.8%
18.8%
Leg Strike %
17.3%
+2.2%
19.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%