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Lucia Szabova
"Silent Killer"
12-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Women's Flyweight
Tainara Lisboa
"Thai Panther"
7-4-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Lucia Szabova 'Silent Killer'
66.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.7% 32.3%
Lucia Szabova
LightGBM currently viewing
66.2% 33.8%
Lucia Szabova
Logistic (Core)
63.2% 36.8%
Lucia Szabova
CatBoost
64.9% 35.1%
Lucia Szabova
Ensemble
67.3% 32.7%
Lucia Szabova
No Age · CatBoost
53.0% 47.0%
Lucia Szabova
No Age · Ensemble
53.3% 46.7%
Lucia Szabova
No Age · LightGBM
51.7% 48.3%
Lucia Szabova
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.5% 45.5%
Lucia Szabova
No Age · XGBoost
52.3% 47.7%
Lucia Szabova
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
65.7% 34.3%
Lucia Szabova
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
67.5% 32.5%
Lucia Szabova
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
70.0% 30.0%
Lucia Szabova
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
63.3% 36.7%
Lucia Szabova
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
71.9% 28.1%
Lucia Szabova
With Odds · CatBoost
52.8% 47.2%
Lucia Szabova
With Odds · Ensemble
53.8% 46.2%
Lucia Szabova
With Odds · LightGBM
57.5% 42.5%
Lucia Szabova
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
63.2% 36.8%
Lucia Szabova
With Odds · XGBoost
56.9% 43.1%
Lucia Szabova
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
26%
Submission
Decision50.3%
KO / TKO23.8%
Submission25.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.1%
Round 233.5%
Round 3+15.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Lucia Szabova
Tainara Lisboa
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -6.81
28%
Age
Tainara Lisboa 35.7 yrs
12%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.06
8%
Age
Lucia Szabova 28.9 yrs
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tainara Lisboa +0.25
4%
Distance strike defense
Tainara Lisboa 55%
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tainara Lisboa 3.64
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Lucia Szabova
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +1
3%
Fights per year
Tainara Lisboa 1.64
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Tainara Lisboa 3.48
3%
Fights per year
Lucia Szabova 0
2%
Head absorption rate
Lucia Szabova
2%
Elo rating
Lucia Szabova 1,500
2%
← pushes toward Lucia Szabova pushes toward Tainara Lisboa →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Lucia Szabova

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Tainara Lisboa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
25%
Avg Duration
13.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Lucia Szabova
ADVANTAGE
Tainara Lisboa
Striking Accuracy
0.0%
+43.8%
43.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
0.00
+2.52
2.52
Strikes Absorbed/Min
0.00
+3.48
3.48
Striking Defense
0.0%
+49.3%
49.3%
Takedown Accuracy
0.0%
+33.6%
33.6%
Takedown Defense
0.0%
+56.1%
56.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.00
+0.09
0.09
Avg Control Time (sec)
0.00
+78.04
78.04
Strikes Per Round
0.00
+14.43
14.43
Head Strike %
0.0%
+61.7%
61.7%
Body Strike %
0.0%
+24.9%
24.9%
Leg Strike %
0.0%
+13.4%
13.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+50.0%
50.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+25.0%
25.0%