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Brady Hiestand
"Bam Bam"
9-2-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Bantamweight
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
10-1-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Brady Hiestand 'Bam Bam'
54.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
49.6% 50.4%
Rinya Nakamura
LightGBM
49.2% 50.8%
Rinya Nakamura
Logistic (Core)
50.4% 49.6%
Brady Hiestand
CatBoost
49.0% 51.0%
Rinya Nakamura
Ensemble
52.7% 47.3%
Brady Hiestand
market-margin__xgb-full
23.1% 76.9%
Rinya Nakamura
No Age · CatBoost
47.0% 53.0%
Rinya Nakamura
No Age · Ensemble
47.2% 52.8%
Rinya Nakamura
No Age · LightGBM
44.9% 55.1%
Rinya Nakamura
No Age · Logistic (Core)
45.3% 54.7%
Rinya Nakamura
No Age · XGBoost
43.8% 56.2%
Rinya Nakamura
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
54.7% 45.3%
Brady Hiestand
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
55.8% 44.2%
Brady Hiestand
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
56.9% 43.1%
Brady Hiestand
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
54.0% 46.0%
Brady Hiestand
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
54.4% 45.6%
Brady Hiestand
With Odds · CatBoost
26.6% 73.4%
Rinya Nakamura
With Odds · Ensemble
27.9% 72.1%
Rinya Nakamura
With Odds · LightGBM
26.8% 73.2%
Rinya Nakamura
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
50.4% 49.6%
Brady Hiestand
With Odds · XGBoost
27.4% 72.6%
Rinya Nakamura
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
51%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision51.2%
KO / TKO29.4%
Submission19.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.5%
Round 234.4%
Round 3+20.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 49% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Brady Hiestand
Rinya Nakamura
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.88
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brady Hiestand -0.47
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rinya Nakamura -0.50
8%
Age
Brady Hiestand 27.4 yrs
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brady Hiestand 5.15
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rinya Nakamura 2.42
4%
Finish loss rate
Rinya Nakamura 9%
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Brady Hiestand 0.65
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Rinya Nakamura 481
3%
Distance strike defense
Brady Hiestand 60%
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.04
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 4%
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Rinya Nakamura 11
3%
Elo rating
Rinya Nakamura 1,552
3%
← pushes toward Brady Hiestand pushes toward Rinya Nakamura →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Brady Hiestand

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
50%
Avg Duration
14.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Rinya Nakamura

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 173 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Brady Hiestand
ADVANTAGE
Rinya Nakamura
Striking Accuracy
46.8%
+1.0%
47.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.72
+0.04
2.69
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.25
+1.13
2.12
Striking Defense
53.7%
+4.3%
58.0%
Takedown Accuracy
41.4%
+5.4%
46.8%
Takedown Defense
60.0%
+4.2%
64.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.16
+0.20
0.37
Avg Control Time (sec)
94.05
+8.52
102.57
Strikes Per Round
14.88
+0.24
14.65
Head Strike %
64.4%
+3.9%
60.6%
Body Strike %
20.9%
+0.5%
21.4%
Leg Strike %
14.7%
+3.4%
18.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
75.0%
+5.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
50.0%
+10.0%
40.0%