Steven Asplund
"Concrete"
6-1-0
VS
Guilherme Pat
"Kong"
5-0-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
56.6%
43.4%
Steven Asplund
LightGBM
49.9%
50.1%
Guilherme Pat
Logistic (Core)
67.3%
32.7%
Steven Asplund
CatBoost
54.7%
45.3%
Steven Asplund
Ensemble
currently viewing
57.1%
42.9%
Steven Asplund
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
41%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Steven Asplund
Guilherme Pat
10%
10%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Steven Asplund
pushes toward Guilherme Pat →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Steven Asplund
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
196 cm
Weight:
261 lbs
Reach:
198 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Guilherme Pat
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
265 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
Orthodox