Anna Melisano
"Bandana"
6-1-0
VS
Dione Barbosa
"The Witch"
8-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
47.4%
52.6%
Dione Barbosa
LightGBM
currently viewing
50.7%
49.3%
Anna Melisano
Logistic (Core)
60.2%
39.8%
Anna Melisano
CatBoost
51.9%
48.1%
Anna Melisano
Ensemble
48.2%
51.8%
Dione Barbosa
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
63%
Decision
15%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 37%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Anna Melisano
Dione Barbosa
13%
10%
9%
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Anna Melisano
pushes toward Dione Barbosa →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Anna Melisano
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
115 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Dione Barbosa
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Orthodox