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Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
13-2-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Heavyweight
Josh Hokit
7-0-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Ciryl Gane 'Bon Gamin'
65.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.6% 47.4%
Ciryl Gane
LightGBM
49.6% 50.4%
Josh Hokit
Logistic (Core)
55.2% 44.8%
Ciryl Gane
CatBoost
42.7% 57.3%
Josh Hokit
Ensemble
54.5% 45.5%
Ciryl Gane
market-margin__xgb-full
59.5% 40.5%
Ciryl Gane
No Age · CatBoost
48.8% 51.2%
Josh Hokit
No Age · Ensemble
62.6% 37.4%
Ciryl Gane
No Age · LightGBM
60.0% 40.0%
Ciryl Gane
No Age · Logistic (Core)
63.0% 37.0%
Ciryl Gane
No Age · XGBoost
55.0% 45.0%
Ciryl Gane
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
39.8% 60.2%
Josh Hokit
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
52.1% 47.9%
Ciryl Gane
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
45.8% 54.2%
Josh Hokit
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
53.3% 46.7%
Ciryl Gane
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Ciryl Gane
With Odds · CatBoost
66.5% 33.5%
Ciryl Gane
With Odds · Ensemble
70.5% 29.5%
Ciryl Gane
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
65.3% 34.7%
Ciryl Gane
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
55.2% 44.8%
Ciryl Gane
With Odds · XGBoost
64.9% 35.1%
Ciryl Gane
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
37%
Decision
51%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision36.8%
KO / TKO50.7%
Submission12.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 146.3%
Round 228.5%
Round 3+25.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 63% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Ciryl Gane
Josh Hokit
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
34%
Reach edge
Matchup +20.3 cm
7%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
6%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
6%
Age
Ciryl Gane 36.6 yrs
5%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +7.59
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ciryl Gane -0.85
4%
Age
Josh Hokit 29.0 yrs
4%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +8
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Josh Hokit -1.70
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Ciryl Gane 331
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Josh Hokit 1.82
2%
Elo rating
Josh Hokit 1,587
2%
Head absorption rate
Ciryl Gane 55%
1%
← pushes toward Ciryl Gane pushes toward Josh Hokit →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Ciryl Gane

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
7.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
L SUB
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 247 lbs
Reach: 206 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Josh Hokit

Win Streak
4
Finish Rate
75%
Avg Duration
7.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 236 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Ciryl Gane
ADVANTAGE
Josh Hokit
Striking Accuracy
59.0%
+0.2%
58.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.56
+2.30
6.86
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.37
+2.11
4.48
Striking Defense
55.9%
+5.1%
50.8%
Takedown Accuracy
31.7%
+9.6%
41.3%
Takedown Defense
56.9%
+11.4%
68.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.29
+0.19
0.48
Avg Control Time (sec)
64.25
+17.64
81.89
Strikes Per Round
20.41
+6.64
27.05
Head Strike %
53.2%
+26.7%
79.9%
Body Strike %
22.7%
+9.8%
13.0%
Leg Strike %
24.0%
+16.9%
7.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+35.0%
75.0%