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Damian Pinas
"The Baba Yaga"
8-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Middleweight
Andrey Pulyaev
10-3-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LOGISTIC (CORE) PREDICTION
Damian Pinas 'The Baba Yaga'
75.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
71.7% 28.3%
Damian Pinas
LightGBM
71.2% 28.8%
Damian Pinas
Logistic (Core)
75.9% 24.1%
Damian Pinas
CatBoost
68.6% 31.4%
Damian Pinas
Ensemble
70.4% 29.6%
Damian Pinas
No Age · CatBoost
69.5% 30.5%
Damian Pinas
No Age · Ensemble
70.6% 29.4%
Damian Pinas
No Age · LightGBM
70.0% 30.0%
Damian Pinas
No Age · Logistic (Core)
72.8% 27.2%
Damian Pinas
No Age · XGBoost
70.2% 29.8%
Damian Pinas
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
67.7% 32.3%
Damian Pinas
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
71.5% 28.5%
Damian Pinas
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
71.7% 28.3%
Damian Pinas
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core) currently viewing
75.7% 24.3%
Damian Pinas
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
72.6% 27.4%
Damian Pinas
With Odds · CatBoost
52.6% 47.4%
Damian Pinas
With Odds · Ensemble
55.4% 44.6%
Damian Pinas
With Odds · LightGBM
58.6% 41.4%
Damian Pinas
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
75.9% 24.1%
Damian Pinas
With Odds · XGBoost
58.5% 41.5%
Damian Pinas
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
57%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision28.0%
KO / TKO57.0%
Submission15.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.6%
Round 234.0%
Round 3+14.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Damian Pinas
Andrey Pulyaev
Elo rating edge
Matchup 68
18%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup -4.50
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Andrey Pulyaev -0.45
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.04
8%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
7%
Age
Andrey Pulyaev 29.1 yrs
5%
Age
Damian Pinas 24.6 yrs
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Damian Pinas 1.90
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Andrey Pulyaev 1.75
4%
Distance strike defense
Andrey Pulyaev 62%
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.29
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 21%
2%
Distance strike defense
Damian Pinas 53%
2%
Fights per year
Andrey Pulyaev 3.16
2%
← pushes toward Damian Pinas pushes toward Andrey Pulyaev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Damian Pinas

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
3.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Andrey Pulyaev

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
25%
Avg Duration
10.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Damian Pinas
ADVANTAGE
Andrey Pulyaev
Striking Accuracy
51.5%
+5.1%
46.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.34
+0.82
2.52
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.39
+0.81
2.58
Striking Defense
49.8%
+7.4%
57.2%
Takedown Accuracy
34.8%
+3.5%
31.4%
Takedown Defense
69.5%
+15.3%
54.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.69
+0.46
0.23
Avg Control Time (sec)
69.70
+2.45
67.25
Strikes Per Round
15.62
+2.33
13.29
Head Strike %
60.9%
+0.3%
60.7%
Body Strike %
20.1%
+5.4%
25.5%
Leg Strike %
18.9%
+5.1%
13.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+75.0%
25.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+75.0%
25.0%