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Nazim Sadykhov
"Black Wolf"
11-1-1
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Lightweight
Jefferson Nascimento
"Toddynho"
13-0-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Nazim Sadykhov 'Black Wolf'
50.9% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
53.0% 47.0%
Nazim Sadykhov
LightGBM
53.9% 46.1%
Nazim Sadykhov
Logistic (Core)
55.2% 44.8%
Nazim Sadykhov
CatBoost
52.6% 47.4%
Nazim Sadykhov
Ensemble
49.3% 50.7%
Jefferson Nascimento
No Age · CatBoost
55.6% 44.4%
Nazim Sadykhov
No Age · Ensemble
54.9% 45.1%
Nazim Sadykhov
No Age · LightGBM
54.1% 45.9%
Nazim Sadykhov
No Age · Logistic (Core)
58.7% 41.3%
Nazim Sadykhov
No Age · XGBoost
62.1% 37.9%
Nazim Sadykhov
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
54.3% 45.7%
Nazim Sadykhov
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
51.0% 49.0%
Nazim Sadykhov
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
50.9% 49.1%
Nazim Sadykhov
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
55.7% 44.3%
Nazim Sadykhov
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
52.0% 48.0%
Nazim Sadykhov
With Odds · CatBoost
48.9% 51.1%
Jefferson Nascimento
With Odds · Ensemble
43.0% 57.0%
Jefferson Nascimento
With Odds · LightGBM
45.3% 54.7%
Jefferson Nascimento
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
55.2% 44.8%
Nazim Sadykhov
With Odds · XGBoost
42.4% 57.6%
Jefferson Nascimento
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision45.2%
KO / TKO32.6%
Submission22.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 155.2%
Round 231.1%
Round 3+13.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Nazim Sadykhov
Jefferson Nascimento
Elo rating edge
Matchup 53
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.12
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jefferson Nascimento -0.73
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nazim Sadykhov -0.47
9%
Age
Jefferson Nascimento 28.0 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nazim Sadykhov 2.07
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 10%
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Nazim Sadykhov 345
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.03
4%
Distance strike defense
Nazim Sadykhov 54%
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Nazim Sadykhov 0.21
3%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +4.51
3%
Distance strike defense
Jefferson Nascimento 64%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jefferson Nascimento 2.57
2%
← pushes toward Nazim Sadykhov pushes toward Jefferson Nascimento →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Nazim Sadykhov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
8.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
W KO
W KO
D DEC
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Jefferson Nascimento

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
14.5m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Nazim Sadykhov
ADVANTAGE
Jefferson Nascimento
Striking Accuracy
45.9%
+0.1%
45.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.45
+0.71
2.73
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.13
+1.34
2.80
Striking Defense
50.4%
+5.6%
56.0%
Takedown Accuracy
36.8%
+1.9%
35.0%
Takedown Defense
63.6%
+0.1%
63.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.24
+0.08
0.16
Avg Control Time (sec)
63.37
+4.82
68.19
Strikes Per Round
16.61
+2.13
14.48
Head Strike %
64.0%
+6.3%
57.6%
Body Strike %
22.1%
+4.3%
26.4%
Leg Strike %
14.0%
+2.0%
16.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+40.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%