Back
Shamil Gaziev
14-2-0
VS
2026-11-21
UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling
Heavyweight
Tallison Teixeira
"Xicao"
8-1-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Tallison Teixeira 'Xicao'
68.2% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
63%
Tallison Teixeira
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Tallison Teixeira is 27, Shamil Gaziev is 37
59%
Shamil Gaziev
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (700-477)
Tallison Teixeira: KO'd 2 times
44%
Shamil Gaziev
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Shamil Gaziev: absorbs 5.1/min
57%
Tallison Teixeira
Fighters who land 32%+ of their strikes on the ground have won 57% of their UFC fights (840-646)
Tallison Teixeira: 40% of strikes on the ground
59%
Tallison Teixeira
Fighters who score 0.89+ knockdowns per 15 minutes facing an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (312-216)
Tallison Teixeira: 0.89 knockdowns/15 min | Shamil Gaziev: finished 3 times
53%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who scores 0.89+ knockdowns per 15 minutes faces an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC end in a KO/TKO 53% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=514)
52%
Division & format
Heavyweight fights end in a KO/TKO 52% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=667)
34%
Division & format
Heavyweight fights go the distance 34% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=667)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
31.8% 68.2%
Tallison Teixeira
XGBoost
31.8% 68.2%
Tallison Teixeira
LightGBM
33.6% 66.4%
Tallison Teixeira
Logistic (Core)
32.2% 67.8%
Tallison Teixeira
CatBoost
31.5% 68.5%
Tallison Teixeira
Ensemble
30.2% 69.8%
Tallison Teixeira
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
35.7% 64.3%
Tallison Teixeira
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
30.6% 69.4%
Tallison Teixeira
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
33.4% 66.6%
Tallison Teixeira
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
32.2% 67.8%
Tallison Teixeira
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
35.0% 65.0%
Tallison Teixeira
With Odds · CatBoost
42.3% 57.7%
Tallison Teixeira
With Odds · Ensemble
36.5% 63.5%
Tallison Teixeira
With Odds · LightGBM
40.7% 59.3%
Tallison Teixeira
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
32.2% 67.8%
Tallison Teixeira
With Odds · XGBoost
41.7% 58.3%
Tallison Teixeira
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
63%
KO / TKO
9%
Submission
Decision28.0%
KO / TKO62.9%
Submission9.1%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
27%
Goes the distance
fair +268
73%
Ends in a finish
fair -268
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 71% -241 29% +241
1.5 45% +123 55% -123
2.5 29% +247 71% -247
When it ends
Round 151%
Round 217%
Round 35%
Goes the distance27%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Shamil Gaziev
Tallison Teixeira
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.11
13%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +9.82
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Shamil Gaziev +0.88
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tallison Teixeira -0.95
6%
Age
Shamil Gaziev 36.8 yrs
6%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +7
5%
Age
Tallison Teixeira 27.0 yrs
4%
Total control time conceded
Shamil Gaziev 57.72
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Tallison Teixeira 469.50
3%
Round 1 strike output
Tallison Teixeira 9.97
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Shamil Gaziev 302
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Shamil Gaziev 1.67
3%
Reach edge
Matchup -12.7 cm
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tallison Teixeira 2.36
2%
← pushes toward Shamil Gaziev pushes toward Tallison Teixeira →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Shamil Gaziev

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
5.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 265 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Tallison Teixeira

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
25%
Avg Duration
4.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
W KO
Height: 201 cm
Weight: 258 lbs
Reach: 211 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Shamil Gaziev
ADVANTAGE
Tallison Teixeira
Striking Accuracy
44.6%
+6.9%
51.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.51
+0.09
2.43
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.86
+1.47
2.39
Striking Defense
49.0%
+0.9%
48.0%
Takedown Accuracy
37.3%
+2.3%
35.0%
Takedown Defense
65.4%
+2.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.30
+0.08
0.21
Avg Control Time (sec)
96.36
+7.57
88.79
Strikes Per Round
13.19
+0.10
13.09
Head Strike %
66.3%
+0.3%
66.0%
Body Strike %
22.8%
+2.1%
20.7%
Leg Strike %
10.9%
+2.4%
13.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+10.0%
50.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+15.0%
25.0%