Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
11-0-0
VS
Mike Davis
"Beast Boy"
12-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
72.5%
27.5%
Nurullo Aliev
LightGBM
73.5%
26.5%
Nurullo Aliev
Logistic (Core)
70.1%
29.9%
Nurullo Aliev
CatBoost
73.3%
26.7%
Nurullo Aliev
Ensemble
currently viewing
68.8%
31.2%
Nurullo Aliev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
22%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Nurullo Aliev
Mike Davis
15%
7%
7%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
← pushes toward Nurullo Aliev
pushes toward Mike Davis →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Nurullo Aliev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
178 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Mike Davis
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
W
SUB
W
DEC
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Orthodox