Austin Bashi
14-1-0
VS
Jose Delgado
10-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
52.7%
47.3%
Austin Bashi
LightGBM
currently viewing
54.2%
45.8%
Austin Bashi
Logistic (Core)
44.5%
55.5%
Jose Delgado
CatBoost
52.4%
47.6%
Austin Bashi
Ensemble
54.8%
45.2%
Austin Bashi
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
21%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Austin Bashi
Jose Delgado
17%
11%
9%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Austin Bashi
pushes toward Jose Delgado →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Austin Bashi
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
SUB
L
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Jose Delgado
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
W
KO
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
145 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
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