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Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
17-6-1
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Lightweight
Cristian Perez
"El Puas"
13-2-0
Thin UFC data
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Cristian Perez 'El Puas'
66.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
29.8% 70.2%
Cristian Perez
LightGBM
30.5% 69.5%
Cristian Perez
Logistic (Core)
36.4% 63.6%
Cristian Perez
CatBoost
33.3% 66.7%
Cristian Perez
Ensemble
28.8% 71.2%
Cristian Perez
No Age · CatBoost
41.4% 58.6%
Cristian Perez
No Age · Ensemble
36.5% 63.5%
Cristian Perez
No Age · LightGBM
36.8% 63.2%
Cristian Perez
No Age · Logistic (Core)
45.4% 54.6%
Cristian Perez
No Age · XGBoost
39.5% 60.5%
Cristian Perez
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
35.8% 64.2%
Cristian Perez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
31.4% 68.6%
Cristian Perez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
33.7% 66.3%
Cristian Perez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
35.9% 64.1%
Cristian Perez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
30.6% 69.4%
Cristian Perez
With Odds · CatBoost
42.1% 57.9%
Cristian Perez
With Odds · Ensemble
39.3% 60.7%
Cristian Perez
With Odds · LightGBM
38.5% 61.5%
Cristian Perez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
36.4% 63.6%
Cristian Perez
With Odds · XGBoost
39.4% 60.6%
Cristian Perez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision49.3%
KO / TKO34.0%
Submission16.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.6%
Round 232.2%
Round 3+14.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Kyle Nelson
Cristian Perez
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +8.33
25%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +9
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Kyle Nelson +0.59
9%
Age
Kyle Nelson 35.5 yrs
9%
Age
Cristian Perez 27.2 yrs
5%
Last 2 avg fight time
Kyle Nelson 462
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Kyle Nelson 0.20
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Cristian Perez
4%
Fights per year
Kyle Nelson 1.64
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -16
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Kyle Nelson 2.75
2%
Distance strike defense
Cristian Perez
2%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.01
2%
Striking defense
Kyle Nelson 57%
2%
← pushes toward Kyle Nelson pushes toward Cristian Perez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Kyle Nelson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
7.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W DEC
L KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Switch

Cristian Perez

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Kyle Nelson
ADVANTAGE
Cristian Perez
Striking Accuracy
46.1%
+46.1%
0.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.20
+3.20
0.00
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.42
+3.42
0.00
Striking Defense
57.0%
+57.0%
0.0%
Takedown Accuracy
33.9%
+33.9%
0.0%
Takedown Defense
62.2%
+62.2%
0.0%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.19
+0.19
0.00
Avg Control Time (sec)
82.10
+82.10
0.00
Strikes Per Round
15.80
+15.80
0.00
Head Strike %
59.6%
+59.6%
0.0%
Body Strike %
22.6%
+22.6%
0.0%
Leg Strike %
17.8%
+17.8%
0.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+60.0%
0.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
0.0%