Iasmin Lucindo
18-6-0
VS
Nicolle Caliari
8-4-0
Market vs Model
Iasmin Lucindo
Nicolle Caliari
Opening line
-450
+354
Market says
79%
21%
CatBoost says
67%
33%
Gap vs market
-12
+12
Market Margin says
79%
21%
Edge at that price
-2
-1
No side clears the 5-point value threshold at the opening line.
The gap uses whichever model you've selected. Value always comes from Market Margin, the one model whose
disagreements with the betting line were backtested (flagged sides returned about +8% for favorites and +18% for
underdogs on flat bets at the opening price across ~2,800 past fights). Other models' disagreements with the market
haven't held up, so they don't get a value flag. It's measured against the opening line — if the price has
moved, the edge will be different.
Fight Insights
63%
Iasmin Lucindo
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Iasmin Lucindo is 25, Nicolle Caliari is 30
57%
Nicolle Caliari
Fighters who average 2.8+ takedowns per 15 minutes have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-882)
Nicolle Caliari: 3.0 takedowns/15 min
57%
Nicolle Caliari
Fighters who average 3.8+ minutes of control time per fight have won 57% of their UFC fights (1170-886)
Nicolle Caliari: 4.6 min control/fight
44%
Nicolle Caliari
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Nicolle Caliari: absorbs 5.9/min
43%
Iasmin Lucindo
Fighters who are returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 43% of their UFC fights (624-820)
Iasmin Lucindo: 15 months since last fight
23%
Market check · Nicolle Caliari
Big underdogs (opening line under 33%) have won 23% of their fights — 4 points below the 27% the opening lines implied (n=2630)
Nicolle Caliari: opening line implies a 21% chance to win
86%
Market check · Iasmin Lucindo
Heavy favorites (opening line over 75%) have won 86% of their fights — 6 points above the 79% the opening lines implied (n=792)
Iasmin Lucindo: opening line implies a 79% chance to win
63%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who has gone to a decision in 70%+ of their UFC fights (5+ fights) go the distance 63% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=1022)
14%
Division & format
Women's Strawweight fights end in a KO/TKO 14% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=381)
66%
Division & format
Women's Strawweight fights go the distance 66% of the time (vs 48% of all UFC fights, n=381)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood
before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for
testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown —
these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market
83.0%
17.0%
Iasmin Lucindo
XGBoost
71.7%
28.3%
Iasmin Lucindo
LightGBM
74.7%
25.3%
Iasmin Lucindo
Logistic (Core)
74.6%
25.4%
Iasmin Lucindo
CatBoost
70.4%
29.6%
Iasmin Lucindo
Ensemble
70.6%
29.4%
Iasmin Lucindo
Market Margin · XGBoost
79.3%
20.7%
Iasmin Lucindo
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
currently viewing
67.2%
32.8%
Iasmin Lucindo
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
70.0%
30.0%
Iasmin Lucindo
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
75.4%
24.6%
Iasmin Lucindo
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
73.9%
26.1%
Iasmin Lucindo
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
66.4%
33.6%
Iasmin Lucindo
With Odds · CatBoost
78.7%
21.3%
Iasmin Lucindo
With Odds · Ensemble
74.3%
25.7%
Iasmin Lucindo
With Odds · LightGBM
79.7%
20.3%
Iasmin Lucindo
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
74.6%
25.4%
Iasmin Lucindo
With Odds · XGBoost
78.4%
21.6%
Iasmin Lucindo
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
12%
KO / TKO
28%
Submission
How long it lasts 3-round fight
65%
Goes the distance
fair -188
35%
Ends in a finish
fair +188
| Rounds line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 95% -1809 | 5% +1809 |
| 1.5 | 85% -552 | 15% +552 |
| 2.5 | 76% -324 | 24% +324 |
When it ends
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds
are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line.
On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4%
(log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance),
so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Iasmin Lucindo
Nicolle Caliari
16%
15%
15%
11%
8%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
← pushes toward Iasmin Lucindo
pushes toward Nicolle Caliari →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Iasmin Lucindo
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
13.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
SUB
Height:
160 cm
Weight:
115 lbs
Reach:
168 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Nicolle Caliari
Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
13.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
L
KO
L
DEC
Height:
160 cm
Weight:
125 lbs
Reach:
157 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Iasmin Lucindo
ADVANTAGE
Nicolle Caliari
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate