Back
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
20-3-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Featherweight
Aaron Pico
13-5-0
Thin UFC data
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Arnold Allen 'Almighty'
52.8% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
53.4% 46.6%
Arnold Allen
LightGBM currently viewing
52.8% 47.2%
Arnold Allen
Logistic (Core)
62.3% 37.7%
Arnold Allen
CatBoost
51.3% 48.7%
Arnold Allen
Ensemble
54.7% 45.3%
Arnold Allen
No Age · CatBoost
51.3% 48.7%
Arnold Allen
No Age · Ensemble
52.5% 47.5%
Arnold Allen
No Age · LightGBM
53.7% 46.3%
Arnold Allen
No Age · Logistic (Core)
63.1% 36.9%
Arnold Allen
No Age · XGBoost
53.4% 46.6%
Arnold Allen
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
49.8% 50.2%
Aaron Pico
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
56.0% 44.0%
Arnold Allen
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
50.9% 49.1%
Arnold Allen
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
63.5% 36.5%
Arnold Allen
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
56.4% 43.6%
Arnold Allen
With Odds · CatBoost
46.9% 53.1%
Aaron Pico
With Odds · Ensemble
43.1% 56.9%
Aaron Pico
With Odds · LightGBM
45.3% 54.7%
Aaron Pico
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
62.3% 37.7%
Arnold Allen
With Odds · XGBoost
43.5% 56.5%
Aaron Pico
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
55%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
Decision55.4%
KO / TKO30.3%
Submission14.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 142.5%
Round 232.8%
Round 3+24.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 45% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Arnold Allen
Aaron Pico
Elo rating edge
Matchup 124
16%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.63
14%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Aaron Pico -0.98
7%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.04
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Aaron Pico 4.89
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +5
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -9%
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Arnold Allen 2.52
4%
Head absorption rate
Arnold Allen 57%
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Arnold Allen 3.75
3%
Fights per year
Arnold Allen 1.38
3%
Striking accuracy
Arnold Allen 48%
3%
Age
Aaron Pico 30.1 yrs
3%
Distance strike defense
Aaron Pico 58%
2%
← pushes toward Arnold Allen pushes toward Aaron Pico →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Arnold Allen

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
19.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Aaron Pico

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
9.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Arnold Allen
ADVANTAGE
Aaron Pico
Striking Accuracy
48.5%
+1.2%
49.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.67
+0.95
4.61
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.75
+0.63
3.13
Striking Defense
56.7%
+5.1%
51.6%
Takedown Accuracy
56.0%
+12.4%
43.6%
Takedown Defense
65.9%
+3.4%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.11
0.15
Avg Control Time (sec)
77.56
+1.91
79.47
Strikes Per Round
17.96
+2.28
20.24
Head Strike %
70.0%
+1.8%
68.2%
Body Strike %
17.7%
+0.3%
18.0%
Leg Strike %
12.3%
+1.5%
13.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+10.0%
50.0%