Levi Rodrigues Jr.
"Baby Monster"
6-0-0
VS
2026-07-18
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Barriault
Light Heavyweight
Felipe Franco
"Negao"
8-1-0
XGBOOST PREDICTION
Levi Rodrigues Jr. 'Baby Monster'
51.2% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
41%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision41.3%
KO / TKO43.9%
Submission14.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.3%
Round 223.6%
Round 3+24.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 59% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Felipe Franco
Age
Felipe Franco
11%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Felipe Franco
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Felipe Franco
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Felipe Franco
7%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
6%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup
6%
Age
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup
5%
Head absorption rate
Felipe Franco
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Felipe Franco
3%
Distance strike defense
Felipe Franco
3%
Elo rating
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
3%
Round 1 strike output
Levi Rodrigues Jr.
2%
← pushes toward Levi Rodrigues Jr. pushes toward Felipe Franco →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Felipe Franco

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox