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Imanol Rodriguez
"Himan"
6-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-03
UFC 332
Flyweight
Alden Coria
"Cobra"
11-3-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Imanol Rodriguez 'Himan'
50.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
51.2% 48.8%
Imanol Rodriguez
LightGBM
51.2% 48.8%
Imanol Rodriguez
Logistic (Core)
54.0% 46.0%
Imanol Rodriguez
CatBoost
50.9% 49.1%
Imanol Rodriguez
Ensemble
50.6% 49.4%
Imanol Rodriguez
No Age · CatBoost
47.8% 52.2%
Alden Coria
No Age · Ensemble
46.2% 53.8%
Alden Coria
No Age · LightGBM
50.1% 49.9%
Imanol Rodriguez
No Age · Logistic (Core)
49.6% 50.4%
Alden Coria
No Age · XGBoost
46.2% 53.8%
Alden Coria
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
49.2% 50.8%
Alden Coria
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
51.7% 48.3%
Imanol Rodriguez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM currently viewing
50.1% 49.9%
Imanol Rodriguez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
55.2% 44.8%
Imanol Rodriguez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
49.5% 50.5%
Alden Coria
With Odds · CatBoost
50.3% 49.7%
Imanol Rodriguez
With Odds · Ensemble
55.7% 44.3%
Imanol Rodriguez
With Odds · LightGBM
54.5% 45.5%
Imanol Rodriguez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
54.0% 46.0%
Imanol Rodriguez
With Odds · XGBoost
53.7% 46.3%
Imanol Rodriguez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
59%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision59.3%
KO / TKO24.0%
Submission16.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 148.4%
Round 232.9%
Round 3+18.7%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 41% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Imanol Rodriguez
Alden Coria
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -8
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -26
12%
Age
Imanol Rodriguez 26.9 yrs
7%
Age
Alden Coria 28.4 yrs
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 17%
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alden Coria -0.33
5%
Distance strike defense
Alden Coria 66%
5%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Imanol Rodriguez 6
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Imanol Rodriguez 3.32
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alden Coria 3.59
4%
Distance strike defense
Imanol Rodriguez 60%
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Alden Coria 0.89
3%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup 0.14
3%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.02
3%
← pushes toward Imanol Rodriguez pushes toward Alden Coria →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Imanol Rodriguez

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
Height: 163 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 163 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Alden Coria

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
13.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 125 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Imanol Rodriguez
ADVANTAGE
Alden Coria
Striking Accuracy
47.9%
+5.6%
42.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.65
+0.13
3.51
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.80
+0.44
2.37
Striking Defense
55.7%
+8.2%
63.9%
Takedown Accuracy
36.8%
+7.8%
44.6%
Takedown Defense
62.5%
+4.2%
58.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.39
+0.26
0.12
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.06
+16.73
67.33
Strikes Per Round
16.90
+0.04
16.95
Head Strike %
65.6%
+2.2%
67.9%
Body Strike %
19.6%
+1.5%
18.1%
Leg Strike %
14.8%
+0.7%
14.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
EVEN
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
100.0%
+66.7%
33.3%