Fares Ziam
"The Smile Killer"
17-4-0
VS
Axel Sola
11-0-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
68.0%
32.0%
Fares Ziam
LightGBM
67.5%
32.5%
Fares Ziam
Logistic (Core)
61.5%
38.5%
Fares Ziam
CatBoost
63.4%
36.6%
Fares Ziam
Ensemble
67.4%
32.6%
Fares Ziam
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
62.3%
37.7%
Fares Ziam
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
67.3%
32.7%
Fares Ziam
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
68.6%
31.4%
Fares Ziam
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
60.1%
39.9%
Fares Ziam
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
70.3%
29.7%
Fares Ziam
With Odds · CatBoost
59.6%
40.4%
Fares Ziam
With Odds · Ensemble
59.9%
40.1%
Fares Ziam
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
59.4%
40.6%
Fares Ziam
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
61.5%
38.5%
Fares Ziam
With Odds · XGBoost
59.6%
40.4%
Fares Ziam
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
54%
Decision
28%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 46%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Fares Ziam
Axel Sola
13%
10%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Fares Ziam
pushes toward Axel Sola →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Fares Ziam
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
155 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Axel Sola
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
KO
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
Southpaw