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John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21-8-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Bantamweight
Alatengheili
"The Mongolian Knight"
17-10-2
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
John Castaneda 'Sexi Mexi'
72.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.4% 32.6%
John Castaneda
LightGBM
66.1% 33.9%
John Castaneda
Logistic (Core)
69.5% 30.5%
John Castaneda
CatBoost
64.0% 36.0%
John Castaneda
Ensemble
67.9% 32.1%
John Castaneda
market-margin__xgb-full
73.2% 26.8%
John Castaneda
No Age · CatBoost
63.3% 36.7%
John Castaneda
No Age · Ensemble
65.9% 34.1%
John Castaneda
No Age · LightGBM
61.6% 38.4%
John Castaneda
No Age · Logistic (Core)
71.0% 29.0%
John Castaneda
No Age · XGBoost
61.9% 38.1%
John Castaneda
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
61.9% 38.1%
John Castaneda
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
67.7% 32.3%
John Castaneda
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
62.9% 37.1%
John Castaneda
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
69.3% 30.7%
John Castaneda
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
63.3% 36.7%
John Castaneda
With Odds · CatBoost
72.8% 27.2%
John Castaneda
With Odds · Ensemble
75.2% 24.8%
John Castaneda
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
72.3% 27.7%
John Castaneda
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
69.5% 30.5%
John Castaneda
With Odds · XGBoost
73.8% 26.2%
John Castaneda
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
66%
Decision
23%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
Decision65.7%
KO / TKO22.6%
Submission11.8%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 147.6%
Round 235.0%
Round 3+17.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 34% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
John Castaneda
Alatengheili
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
36%
Market opening prob diff
Matchup
9%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +2.02
6%
Market line movement diff
Matchup
5%
Age
John Castaneda 34.8 yrs
5%
Age
Alatengheili 34.8 yrs
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alatengheili -0.43
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Alatengheili 4.71
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
John Castaneda 4.73
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alatengheili 2.97
2%
Last 2 avg fight time
John Castaneda 900
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
John Castaneda 3.02
2%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Alatengheili 1.07
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -18
2%
← pushes toward John Castaneda pushes toward Alatengheili →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

John Castaneda

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
D DEC
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 180 cm
Stance: Switch

Alatengheili

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
John Castaneda
ADVANTAGE
Alatengheili
Striking Accuracy
50.9%
+14.4%
36.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.99
+2.04
2.95
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.73
+0.02
4.71
Striking Defense
54.0%
+1.5%
55.5%
Takedown Accuracy
38.9%
+3.0%
41.9%
Takedown Defense
72.1%
+7.7%
64.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.25
+0.08
0.17
Avg Control Time (sec)
71.69
+10.88
82.56
Strikes Per Round
22.53
+7.16
15.36
Head Strike %
57.9%
+5.0%
62.9%
Body Strike %
17.8%
+4.2%
22.0%
Leg Strike %
24.3%
+9.2%
15.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
60.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%