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Rodolfo Vieira
11-4-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Middleweight
Robert Bryczek
18-6-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Rodolfo Vieira
68.1% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
66.0% 34.0%
Rodolfo Vieira
LightGBM
63.9% 36.1%
Rodolfo Vieira
Logistic (Core)
64.1% 35.9%
Rodolfo Vieira
CatBoost
65.1% 34.9%
Rodolfo Vieira
Ensemble
71.4% 28.6%
Rodolfo Vieira
market-margin__xgb-full
62.6% 37.4%
Rodolfo Vieira
No Age · CatBoost
67.7% 32.3%
Rodolfo Vieira
No Age · Ensemble
71.8% 28.2%
Rodolfo Vieira
No Age · LightGBM
68.6% 31.4%
Rodolfo Vieira
No Age · Logistic (Core)
65.3% 34.7%
Rodolfo Vieira
No Age · XGBoost
71.6% 28.4%
Rodolfo Vieira
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost currently viewing
68.1% 31.9%
Rodolfo Vieira
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
72.8% 27.2%
Rodolfo Vieira
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
73.1% 26.9%
Rodolfo Vieira
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
64.2% 35.8%
Rodolfo Vieira
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
69.2% 30.8%
Rodolfo Vieira
With Odds · CatBoost
57.0% 43.0%
Rodolfo Vieira
With Odds · Ensemble
65.6% 34.4%
Rodolfo Vieira
With Odds · LightGBM
57.3% 42.7%
Rodolfo Vieira
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
64.1% 35.9%
Rodolfo Vieira
With Odds · XGBoost
62.5% 37.5%
Rodolfo Vieira
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
51%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
Decision50.7%
KO / TKO29.7%
Submission19.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.7%
Round 231.4%
Round 3+16.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 49% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Rodolfo Vieira
Robert Bryczek
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.39
14%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rodolfo Vieira 7.14
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -9
9%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 33
9%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Robert Bryczek +0.69
7%
Age
Rodolfo Vieira 37.0 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Rodolfo Vieira -0.89
7%
Age
Robert Bryczek 36.2 yrs
6%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.06
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 14%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Robert Bryczek 1.77
2%
Distance strike defense
Rodolfo Vieira 53%
2%
Distance strike defense
Robert Bryczek 60%
2%
Past prime
Rodolfo Vieira 1
2%
← pushes toward Rodolfo Vieira pushes toward Robert Bryczek →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Rodolfo Vieira

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L KO
W DEC
L DEC
W SUB
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Robert Bryczek

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
13.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Rodolfo Vieira
ADVANTAGE
Robert Bryczek
Striking Accuracy
51.2%
+8.4%
42.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.16
+0.49
2.67
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.63
+0.16
3.79
Striking Defense
50.3%
+3.9%
54.2%
Takedown Accuracy
21.9%
+19.0%
40.9%
Takedown Defense
56.2%
+8.0%
64.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.21
+0.07
0.28
Avg Control Time (sec)
81.22
+18.75
62.48
Strikes Per Round
15.47
+1.68
13.79
Head Strike %
58.3%
+3.6%
61.9%
Body Strike %
19.8%
+3.9%
23.6%
Leg Strike %
21.9%
+7.4%
14.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+6.7%
33.3%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+13.3%
33.3%