Back
Norma Dumont
"The Immortal"
13-2-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Women's Bantamweight
Ailin Perez
"Fiona"
12-2-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Ailin Perez 'Fiona'
51.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
51.8% 48.2%
Norma Dumont
LightGBM
51.6% 48.4%
Norma Dumont
Logistic (Core)
48.1% 51.9%
Ailin Perez
CatBoost
48.8% 51.2%
Ailin Perez
Ensemble
43.3% 56.7%
Ailin Perez
market-margin__xgb-full
34.6% 65.4%
Ailin Perez
No Age · CatBoost
54.5% 45.5%
Norma Dumont
No Age · Ensemble
44.7% 55.3%
Ailin Perez
No Age · LightGBM
53.1% 46.9%
Norma Dumont
No Age · Logistic (Core)
53.0% 47.0%
Norma Dumont
No Age · XGBoost
50.3% 49.7%
Norma Dumont
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
47.8% 52.2%
Ailin Perez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
42.5% 57.5%
Ailin Perez
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
50.4% 49.6%
Norma Dumont
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
47.1% 52.9%
Ailin Perez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
48.7% 51.3%
Ailin Perez
With Odds · CatBoost
45.4% 54.6%
Ailin Perez
With Odds · Ensemble
39.2% 60.8%
Ailin Perez
With Odds · LightGBM
42.5% 57.5%
Ailin Perez
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
48.1% 51.9%
Ailin Perez
With Odds · XGBoost
43.4% 56.6%
Ailin Perez
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
71%
Decision
16%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision71.1%
KO / TKO15.8%
Submission13.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 133.1%
Round 247.9%
Round 3+19.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 29% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Norma Dumont
Ailin Perez
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Norma Dumont -0.85
11%
Age
Norma Dumont 36.0 yrs
11%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ailin Perez 5.80
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ailin Perez -0.51
8%
Strikes absorbed/min
Ailin Perez 2.00
5%
Head absorption rate
Norma Dumont 54%
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup -8%
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Norma Dumont 0.15
4%
Fights per year
Norma Dumont 1.95
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Norma Dumont 2.53
4%
Distance strike defense
Norma Dumont 63%
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Ailin Perez 900
3%
Avg control time
Ailin Perez 106.37
3%
Elo rating
Norma Dumont 1,568
2%
← pushes toward Norma Dumont pushes toward Ailin Perez →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Norma Dumont

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
15.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 170 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Ailin Perez

Win Streak
6
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 165 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 168 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Norma Dumont
ADVANTAGE
Ailin Perez
Striking Accuracy
50.3%
+1.5%
51.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.88
+0.98
2.90
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.78
+0.78
2.00
Striking Defense
60.1%
+4.1%
56.0%
Takedown Accuracy
43.3%
+2.7%
46.0%
Takedown Defense
66.9%
+0.9%
66.1%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.12
+0.03
0.14
Avg Control Time (sec)
98.09
+8.28
106.37
Strikes Per Round
18.73
+3.59
15.14
Head Strike %
56.8%
+3.2%
60.0%
Body Strike %
23.1%
+1.6%
21.5%
Leg Strike %
20.0%
+1.5%
18.5%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%