Abubakar Vagaev
24-4-0
VS
Saygid Izagakhmaev
22-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
47.4%
52.6%
Saygid Izagakhmaev
LightGBM
48.1%
51.9%
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Logistic (Core)
52.3%
47.7%
Abubakar Vagaev
CatBoost
49.2%
50.8%
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Ensemble
currently viewing
45.9%
54.1%
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
47%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 53%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Abubakar Vagaev
Saygid Izagakhmaev
15%
12%
8%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Abubakar Vagaev
pushes toward Saygid Izagakhmaev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Abubakar Vagaev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
188 cm
Stance:
N/A