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Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
30-11-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Light Heavyweight
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
"Hunter"
8-0-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 'Hunter'
52.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
39.0% 61.0%
Abdul Rakhman...
LightGBM
36.9% 63.1%
Abdul Rakhman...
Logistic (Core)
30.4% 69.6%
Abdul Rakhman...
CatBoost
33.0% 67.0%
Abdul Rakhman...
Ensemble
35.1% 64.9%
Abdul Rakhman...
No Age · CatBoost
37.8% 62.2%
Abdul Rakhman...
No Age · Ensemble
41.0% 59.0%
Abdul Rakhman...
No Age · LightGBM
37.6% 62.4%
Abdul Rakhman...
No Age · Logistic (Core)
32.9% 67.1%
Abdul Rakhman...
No Age · XGBoost
40.8% 59.2%
Abdul Rakhman...
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
32.3% 67.7%
Abdul Rakhman...
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
36.3% 63.7%
Abdul Rakhman...
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
36.0% 64.0%
Abdul Rakhman...
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
30.0% 70.0%
Abdul Rakhman...
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
40.4% 59.6%
Abdul Rakhman...
With Odds · CatBoost
43.8% 56.2%
Abdul Rakhman...
With Odds · Ensemble
52.3% 47.7%
Nikita Krylov
With Odds · LightGBM
45.1% 54.9%
Abdul Rakhman...
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
30.4% 69.6%
Abdul Rakhman...
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
47.8% 52.2%
Abdul Rakhman...
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
43%
KO / TKO
29%
Submission
Decision27.9%
KO / TKO42.8%
Submission29.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 164.1%
Round 222.9%
Round 3+13.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 72% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Nikita Krylov
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +33
13%
Last 2 avg fight time
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 90
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Nikita Krylov +0.67
6%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +8.83
5%
Age
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 25.8 yrs
5%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 0.36
4%
Elo momentum edge
Matchup -65
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Nikita Krylov 0.24
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Nikita Krylov 3.20
4%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
4%
Age
Nikita Krylov 34.6 yrs
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 1.95
3%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 8
3%
Fights per year
Nikita Krylov 1.71
3%
← pushes toward Nikita Krylov pushes toward Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Nikita Krylov

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
7.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
L KO
L KO
W SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 196 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
1.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W SUB
W SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Nikita Krylov
ADVANTAGE
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
Striking Accuracy
48.7%
+1.9%
46.8%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.41
+1.19
2.22
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.85
+0.96
1.89
Striking Defense
54.0%
+1.4%
55.4%
Takedown Accuracy
39.4%
+5.8%
45.2%
Takedown Defense
60.6%
+1.9%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.27
+0.16
0.44
Avg Control Time (sec)
90.43
+18.46
71.98
Strikes Per Round
16.43
+3.50
12.93
Head Strike %
54.7%
+11.3%
66.0%
Body Strike %
24.6%
+5.3%
19.3%
Leg Strike %
20.8%
+6.0%
14.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%