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Javad Mahjoub
5-0-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Heavyweight
Louie Sutherland
"Vanilla Gorilla"
10-4-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Javad Mahjoub
61.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
63.9% 36.1%
Javad Mahjoub
LightGBM
62.1% 37.9%
Javad Mahjoub
Logistic (Core)
57.9% 42.1%
Javad Mahjoub
CatBoost
61.7% 38.3%
Javad Mahjoub
Ensemble
59.8% 40.2%
Javad Mahjoub
No Age · CatBoost
64.5% 35.5%
Javad Mahjoub
No Age · Ensemble
65.8% 34.2%
Javad Mahjoub
No Age · LightGBM
67.5% 32.5%
Javad Mahjoub
No Age · Logistic (Core)
62.8% 37.2%
Javad Mahjoub
No Age · XGBoost
69.6% 30.4%
Javad Mahjoub
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost currently viewing
61.6% 38.4%
Javad Mahjoub
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
57.7% 42.3%
Javad Mahjoub
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
59.6% 40.4%
Javad Mahjoub
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
58.3% 41.7%
Javad Mahjoub
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
58.0% 42.0%
Javad Mahjoub
With Odds · CatBoost
53.3% 46.7%
Javad Mahjoub
With Odds · Ensemble
52.0% 48.0%
Javad Mahjoub
With Odds · LightGBM
53.5% 46.5%
Javad Mahjoub
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
57.9% 42.1%
Javad Mahjoub
With Odds · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Javad Mahjoub
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
36%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision45.5%
KO / TKO35.6%
Submission18.9%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 153.7%
Round 233.9%
Round 3+12.4%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Javad Mahjoub
Louie Sutherland
Elo rating edge
Matchup 43
19%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -9
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Louie Sutherland -0.82
12%
Age
Javad Mahjoub 34.4 yrs
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.05
5%
Strikes absorbed/min
Louie Sutherland 1.88
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Javad Mahjoub
3%
Total control time conceded
Louie Sutherland 83.50
3%
Distance strike defense
Javad Mahjoub
3%
Distance strike defense
Louie Sutherland 60%
3%
Round 1 strike output
Louie Sutherland 9.11
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Louie Sutherland 3.01
2%
Age
Louie Sutherland 32.7 yrs
2%
Control time conceded
Louie Sutherland 62.97
2%
← pushes toward Javad Mahjoub pushes toward Louie Sutherland →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Javad Mahjoub

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height: N/A cm
Weight: N/A lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Louie Sutherland

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
5.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
W DEC
L KO
L SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 264 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Javad Mahjoub
ADVANTAGE
Louie Sutherland
Striking Accuracy
0.0%
+50.4%
50.4%
Strikes Landed/Min
0.00
+1.84
1.84
Strikes Absorbed/Min
0.00
+1.88
1.88
Striking Defense
0.0%
+50.4%
50.4%
Takedown Accuracy
0.0%
+38.7%
38.7%
Takedown Defense
0.0%
+57.8%
57.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.00
+0.11
0.11
Avg Control Time (sec)
0.00
+103.97
103.97
Strikes Per Round
0.00
+11.23
11.23
Head Strike %
0.0%
+62.7%
62.7%
Body Strike %
0.0%
+18.1%
18.1%
Leg Strike %
0.0%
+19.1%
19.1%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+25.0%
25.0%