Xiao Long
27-10-0
VS
Francesco Nuzzi
"Berserker"
11-2-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
47.8%
52.2%
Francesco Nuzzi
LightGBM
44.6%
55.4%
Francesco Nuzzi
Logistic (Core)
46.6%
53.4%
Francesco Nuzzi
CatBoost
48.8%
51.2%
Francesco Nuzzi
Ensemble
currently viewing
48.6%
51.4%
Francesco Nuzzi
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
50.9%
49.1%
Xiao Long
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
53.2%
46.8%
Xiao Long
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
51.1%
48.9%
Xiao Long
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
47.1%
52.9%
Francesco Nuzzi
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
47.8%
52.2%
Francesco Nuzzi
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
30%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Xiao Long
Francesco Nuzzi
19%
11%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Xiao Long
pushes toward Francesco Nuzzi →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Xiao Long
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
DEC
L
DEC
W
KO
L
DEC
Height:
173 cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
178 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Francesco Nuzzi
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
135 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
Southpaw