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Abus Magomedov
28-7-1
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Middleweight
Cam Rowston
13-3-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Cam Rowston
56.3% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
30.3% 69.7%
Cam Rowston
LightGBM
36.5% 63.5%
Cam Rowston
Logistic (Core)
33.8% 66.2%
Cam Rowston
CatBoost
34.1% 65.9%
Cam Rowston
Ensemble
32.9% 67.1%
Cam Rowston
No Age · CatBoost
35.4% 64.6%
Cam Rowston
No Age · Ensemble
32.5% 67.5%
Cam Rowston
No Age · LightGBM
32.5% 67.5%
Cam Rowston
No Age · Logistic (Core)
33.6% 66.4%
Cam Rowston
No Age · XGBoost
27.1% 72.9%
Cam Rowston
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
36.9% 63.1%
Cam Rowston
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
34.4% 65.6%
Cam Rowston
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
40.5% 59.5%
Cam Rowston
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
35.4% 64.6%
Cam Rowston
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
35.3% 64.7%
Cam Rowston
With Odds · CatBoost
44.5% 55.5%
Cam Rowston
With Odds · Ensemble
42.2% 57.8%
Cam Rowston
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
43.7% 56.3%
Cam Rowston
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
33.8% 66.2%
Cam Rowston
With Odds · XGBoost
39.9% 60.1%
Cam Rowston
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
38%
Decision
44%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
Decision38.4%
KO / TKO44.4%
Submission17.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 152.2%
Round 233.0%
Round 3+14.8%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 62% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Abus Magomedov
Cam Rowston
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +20
20%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.22
12%
Age
Abus Magomedov 36.1 yrs
12%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Cam Rowston -0.26
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Cam Rowston 0.21
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Abus Magomedov -0.29
4%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Cam Rowston 0.42
4%
Age
Cam Rowston 31.8 yrs
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Cam Rowston 2.20
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Abus Magomedov 2.68
3%
Fights per year
Abus Magomedov 2.10
2%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
2%
Distance strike defense
Cam Rowston 58%
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Abus Magomedov 0.46
2%
← pushes toward Abus Magomedov pushes toward Cam Rowston →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Abus Magomedov

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L SUB
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Cam Rowston

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
8.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 198 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Abus Magomedov
ADVANTAGE
Cam Rowston
Striking Accuracy
47.8%
+0.4%
47.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.70
+1.49
4.19
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.73
+0.53
2.20
Striking Defense
56.3%
+1.6%
54.8%
Takedown Accuracy
47.0%
+7.8%
39.3%
Takedown Defense
70.3%
+5.5%
64.8%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.26
+0.00
0.26
Avg Control Time (sec)
90.76
+8.88
99.64
Strikes Per Round
13.83
+4.65
18.48
Head Strike %
60.6%
+10.0%
70.6%
Body Strike %
25.1%
+9.4%
15.7%
Leg Strike %
14.3%
+0.6%
13.7%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+20.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+26.7%
66.7%