Ding Meng
"The Assassin"
34-9-0
VS
Cameron Nelson
7-1-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
38.3%
61.7%
Cameron Nelson
LightGBM
currently viewing
37.7%
62.3%
Cameron Nelson
Logistic (Core)
36.2%
63.8%
Cameron Nelson
CatBoost
42.1%
57.9%
Cameron Nelson
Ensemble
34.4%
65.6%
Cameron Nelson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
42.9%
57.1%
Cameron Nelson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
35.4%
64.6%
Cameron Nelson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
38.7%
61.3%
Cameron Nelson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
34.1%
65.9%
Cameron Nelson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
37.3%
62.7%
Cameron Nelson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
46%
Decision
35%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Ding Meng
Cameron Nelson
28%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Ding Meng
pushes toward Cameron Nelson →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Ding Meng
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
L
DEC
Height:
188 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
185 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Cameron Nelson
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A