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Renato Moicano
20-7-1
VS
2026-10-31
UFC Fight Night: Klein vs. Kropschot
Lightweight
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10-1-0
WITH ODDS · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Tom Nolan 'Big Train'
55.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
34.5% 65.5%
Tom Nolan
LightGBM
33.0% 67.0%
Tom Nolan
Logistic (Core)
38.1% 61.9%
Tom Nolan
CatBoost
33.1% 66.9%
Tom Nolan
Ensemble
36.1% 63.9%
Tom Nolan
No Age · CatBoost
40.3% 59.7%
Tom Nolan
No Age · Ensemble
43.5% 56.5%
Tom Nolan
No Age · LightGBM
41.9% 58.1%
Tom Nolan
No Age · Logistic (Core)
47.5% 52.5%
Tom Nolan
No Age · XGBoost
40.3% 59.7%
Tom Nolan
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
33.0% 67.0%
Tom Nolan
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
35.3% 64.7%
Tom Nolan
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
29.4% 70.6%
Tom Nolan
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
37.5% 62.5%
Tom Nolan
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
33.1% 66.9%
Tom Nolan
With Odds · CatBoost
40.7% 59.3%
Tom Nolan
With Odds · Ensemble
43.5% 56.5%
Tom Nolan
With Odds · LightGBM
39.5% 60.5%
Tom Nolan
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
38.1% 61.9%
Tom Nolan
With Odds · XGBoost currently viewing
44.3% 55.7%
Tom Nolan
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
51%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
25%
Submission
Decision50.6%
KO / TKO24.3%
Submission25.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.5%
Round 229.4%
Round 3+19.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 49% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Renato Moicano
Tom Nolan
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +17
9%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +10.80
8%
Age
Tom Nolan 26.6 yrs
7%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.71
7%
Age
Renato Moicano 37.4 yrs
6%
Sub attempts/fight
Tom Nolan 0.61
4%
Fights per year
Renato Moicano 1.77
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Renato Moicano -1.26
4%
Head absorption rate
Tom Nolan 56%
4%
Total career fights (incl. non-UFC)
Tom Nolan 11
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Tom Nolan +0.52
4%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Tom Nolan 3.04
3%
Finish loss rate
Renato Moicano 25%
3%
← pushes toward Renato Moicano pushes toward Tom Nolan →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Renato Moicano

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
L DEC
L SUB
W KO
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Tom Nolan

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
10.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 185 cm
Stance: Southpaw
Head-to-Head Stats
Renato Moicano
ADVANTAGE
Tom Nolan
Striking Accuracy
50.0%
+5.1%
44.9%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.87
+0.81
3.68
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.95
+0.10
3.05
Striking Defense
54.8%
+3.2%
51.7%
Takedown Accuracy
34.2%
+0.7%
33.5%
Takedown Defense
57.4%
+2.0%
59.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.07
0.10
Avg Control Time (sec)
97.50
+15.40
82.11
Strikes Per Round
14.63
+2.78
17.41
Head Strike %
71.4%
+14.6%
56.8%
Body Strike %
15.7%
+10.2%
25.9%
Leg Strike %
12.9%
+4.5%
17.4%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%