Dricus Du Plessis
"Stillknocks"
23-3-0
VS
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
65.9%
34.1%
Dricus Du Plessis
LightGBM
currently viewing
63.1%
36.9%
Dricus Du Plessis
Logistic (Core)
60.3%
39.7%
Dricus Du Plessis
CatBoost
63.1%
36.9%
Dricus Du Plessis
Ensemble
61.1%
38.9%
Dricus Du Plessis
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
32%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Dricus Du Plessis
Kamaru Usman
20%
11%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Dricus Du Plessis
pushes toward Kamaru Usman →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Dricus Du Plessis
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
SUB
W
DEC
Height:
185 cm
Weight:
185 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Switch
Kamaru Usman
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
L
DEC
L
DEC
L
KO
Height:
183 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Switch