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Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
24-13-0
VS
2026-11-21
UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling
Lightweight
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-5-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Dan Hooker 'The Hangman'
62.3% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
40%
Dan Hooker
Fighters who are 35 or older have won 40% of their UFC fights (961-1432)
Dan Hooker: age 37
44%
Dan Hooker
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Dan Hooker: absorbs 4.9/min
43%
Brian Ortega
Fighters who are returning from a layoff of a year or more have won 43% of their UFC fights (624-820)
Brian Ortega: 15 months since last fight
57%
Dan Hooker
Fighters who land 4.7+ significant strikes per minute facing an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC have won 57% of their UFC fights (398-299)
Dan Hooker: 4.8 sig strikes/min | Brian Ortega: finished 2 times
65%
Brian Ortega
Fighters who are fighting at this weight for the first time in the UFC facing an opponent who is coming off a KO/TKO loss have won 65% of their UFC fights (79-42)
45%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who lands 4.7+ significant strikes per minute faces an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC end in a KO/TKO 45% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=435)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
62.3% 37.7%
Dan Hooker
XGBoost
62.3% 37.7%
Dan Hooker
LightGBM
59.3% 40.7%
Dan Hooker
Logistic (Core)
50.2% 49.8%
Dan Hooker
CatBoost
59.9% 40.1%
Dan Hooker
Ensemble
60.2% 39.8%
Dan Hooker
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
51.9% 48.1%
Dan Hooker
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
55.1% 44.9%
Dan Hooker
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
55.3% 44.7%
Dan Hooker
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
42.1% 57.9%
Brian Ortega
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
60.5% 39.5%
Dan Hooker
With Odds · CatBoost
53.9% 46.1%
Dan Hooker
With Odds · Ensemble
56.7% 43.3%
Dan Hooker
With Odds · LightGBM
53.1% 46.9%
Dan Hooker
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
50.2% 49.8%
Dan Hooker
With Odds · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Dan Hooker
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
52%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
15%
Submission
Decision52.3%
KO / TKO32.6%
Submission15.1%
How long it lasts 3-round fight
48%
Goes the distance
fair +106
52%
Ends in a finish
fair -106
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 91% -1028 9% +1028
1.5 72% -258 28% +258
2.5 55% -124 45% +124
When it ends
Round 121%
Round 219%
Round 312%
Goes the distance48%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 4% (log loss; 51% of 3-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Dan Hooker
Brian Ortega
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.05
15%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Brian Ortega -1.25
7%
Age
Brian Ortega 35.7 yrs
7%
Age
Dan Hooker 36.8 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Dan Hooker -0.74
6%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -32
5%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +16
5%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 10%
4%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.03
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Brian Ortega 1200.00
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brian Ortega 3.34
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Dan Hooker 370
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Dan Hooker 1.72
3%
← pushes toward Dan Hooker pushes toward Brian Ortega →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Dan Hooker

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
10.2m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L SUB
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 183 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Switch

Brian Ortega

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W SUB
L KO
L DEC
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 145 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Dan Hooker
ADVANTAGE
Brian Ortega
Striking Accuracy
48.9%
+10.2%
38.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.67
+0.60
3.07
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.48
+0.45
4.94
Striking Defense
44.0%
+5.2%
49.2%
Takedown Accuracy
34.4%
+1.8%
32.6%
Takedown Defense
69.0%
+10.6%
58.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.20
+0.02
0.18
Avg Control Time (sec)
64.14
+4.10
68.24
Strikes Per Round
17.53
+2.15
15.38
Head Strike %
58.1%
+7.7%
65.8%
Body Strike %
22.8%
+2.5%
20.3%
Leg Strike %
19.1%
+5.2%
13.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
20.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+20.0%
20.0%