Back
Brendan Allen
"All In"
26-7-0
VS
2026-10-10
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
Middleweight
Christian Leroy Duncan
"CLD"
13-2-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · XGBOOST PREDICTION
Christian Leroy Duncan 'CLD'
55.4% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
42.5% 57.5%
Christian Ler...
LightGBM
47.5% 52.5%
Christian Ler...
Logistic (Core)
42.4% 57.6%
Christian Ler...
CatBoost
43.2% 56.8%
Christian Ler...
Ensemble
41.0% 59.0%
Christian Ler...
No Age · CatBoost
42.0% 58.0%
Christian Ler...
No Age · Ensemble
37.4% 62.6%
Christian Ler...
No Age · LightGBM
41.8% 58.2%
Christian Ler...
No Age · Logistic (Core)
36.9% 63.1%
Christian Ler...
No Age · XGBoost
43.4% 56.6%
Christian Ler...
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
46.0% 54.0%
Christian Ler...
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
38.9% 61.1%
Christian Ler...
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
46.6% 53.4%
Christian Ler...
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
41.0% 59.0%
Christian Ler...
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost currently viewing
44.6% 55.4%
Christian Ler...
With Odds · CatBoost
45.2% 54.8%
Christian Ler...
With Odds · Ensemble
39.8% 60.2%
Christian Ler...
With Odds · LightGBM
42.3% 57.7%
Christian Ler...
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
42.4% 57.6%
Christian Ler...
With Odds · XGBoost
43.5% 56.5%
Christian Ler...
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
31%
KO / TKO
16%
Submission
Decision53.0%
KO / TKO30.6%
Submission16.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.8%
Round 236.3%
Round 3+21.9%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Brendan Allen
Christian Leroy Duncan
Net striking dominance
Matchup -1.84
13%
Elo rating edge
Matchup 41
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +18
11%
Distance strike defense
Christian Leroy Duncan 61%
5%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Christian Leroy Duncan 0.43
4%
Strikes absorbed/min
Christian Leroy Duncan 2.01
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Brendan Allen 3.21
4%
Age
Brendan Allen 30.8 yrs
3%
Finish loss rate
Christian Leroy Duncan 7%
3%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Christian Leroy Duncan +0.06
3%
Reach edge
Matchup -10.2 cm
3%
Last 2 avg fight time
Christian Leroy Duncan 900
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Christian Leroy Duncan 1.97
2%
Sub attempts/fight
Brendan Allen 0.55
2%
← pushes toward Brendan Allen pushes toward Christian Leroy Duncan →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Brendan Allen

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
16.0m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
L DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Christian Leroy Duncan

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
11.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
W KO
W KO
W DEC
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Switch
Head-to-Head Stats
Brendan Allen
ADVANTAGE
Christian Leroy Duncan
Striking Accuracy
49.6%
+4.5%
54.2%
Strikes Landed/Min
3.49
+0.33
3.82
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.52
+1.51
2.01
Striking Defense
50.4%
+5.8%
56.2%
Takedown Accuracy
39.3%
+7.8%
31.5%
Takedown Defense
60.6%
+3.7%
56.9%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.14
+0.14
0.29
Avg Control Time (sec)
88.15
+20.41
67.74
Strikes Per Round
16.92
+1.13
18.05
Head Strike %
67.1%
+13.4%
53.7%
Body Strike %
18.5%
+0.2%
18.8%
Leg Strike %
14.4%
+13.2%
27.6%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+20.0%
40.0%