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Jiri Prochazka
32-5-1
VS
2026-11-21
UFC Fight Night: Prochazka vs. Stirling
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling
8-0-0
MAIN + MARKET PREDICTION
Navajo Stirling
65.2% CONFIDENCE
Fight Insights
63%
Navajo Stirling
Fighters who are 5+ years younger than their opponent have won 63% of their UFC fights (1773-1054)
Navajo Stirling is 29, Jiri Prochazka is 34
59%
Navajo Stirling
Fighters who are undefeated with 5+ wins have won 59% of their UFC fights (900-615)
Navajo Stirling: 8-0-0 record
59%
Navajo Stirling
Fighters who are coming off a win facing an opponent who has been knocked out 2+ times in the UFC have won 59% of their UFC fights (700-477)
Jiri Prochazka: KO'd 3 times
44%
Jiri Prochazka
Fighters who absorb 4.1+ significant strikes per minute have won 44% of their UFC fights (930-1190)
Jiri Prochazka: absorbs 5.7/min
53%
Matchup
Fights where a fighter who has won 50%+ of their UFC fights by KO/TKO (5+ fights) faces an opponent who has been finished 2+ times in the UFC end in a KO/TKO 53% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=248)
46%
Division & format
Light Heavyweight fights end in a KO/TKO 46% of the time (vs 33% of all UFC fights, n=717)
38%
Division & format
Light Heavyweight fights end in round 1 38% of the time (vs 27% of all UFC fights, n=717)
Real UFC history since 2006, using each fighter's record, form and stats as they stood before every past fight. Only patterns that hold up statistically (corrected for testing many ideas at once) and point the same way in both halves of history are shown — these describe the past, they are not predictions.
What Every Model Says
Main + Market currently viewing
34.8% 65.2%
Navajo Stirling
XGBoost
34.8% 65.2%
Navajo Stirling
LightGBM
34.0% 66.0%
Navajo Stirling
Logistic (Core)
21.2% 78.8%
Navajo Stirling
CatBoost
32.1% 67.9%
Navajo Stirling
Ensemble
29.2% 70.8%
Navajo Stirling
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
34.9% 65.1%
Navajo Stirling
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
29.9% 70.1%
Navajo Stirling
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
33.3% 66.7%
Navajo Stirling
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
21.8% 78.2%
Navajo Stirling
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
31.1% 68.9%
Navajo Stirling
With Odds · CatBoost
43.0% 57.0%
Navajo Stirling
With Odds · Ensemble
36.0% 64.0%
Navajo Stirling
With Odds · LightGBM
39.2% 60.8%
Navajo Stirling
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
21.2% 78.8%
Navajo Stirling
With Odds · XGBoost
39.4% 60.6%
Navajo Stirling
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
28%
Decision
63%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision27.7%
KO / TKO62.6%
Submission9.7%
How long it lasts 5-round fight
33%
Goes the distance
fair +208
67%
Ends in a finish
fair -208
Rounds lineOverUnder
0.5 88% -715 12% +715
1.5 61% -156 39% +156
2.5 46% +117 54% -117
3.5 40% +152 60% -152
4.5 35% +187 65% -187
When it ends
Round 131%
Round 217%
Round 311%
Round 45%
Round 54%
Goes the distance33%
"Over 1.5" means the fight lasts past the middle of round 2, the way sportsbooks settle it. Fair odds are the break-even price with no vig, so compare them with a book's line. On unseen fights this model beat the plain base rate by about 10% (log loss; 46% of 5-round fights go the distance), so treat it as a tilt away from the base rate, not a certainty.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Jiri Prochazka
Navajo Stirling
Net striking dominance
Matchup -2.97
13%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +30
8%
Age edge (significant gap)
Matchup +5.07
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Jiri Prochazka -1.60
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Navajo Stirling -1.24
6%
Age
Jiri Prochazka 34.1 yrs
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 7%
4%
Age
Navajo Stirling 29.0 yrs
4%
Striking accuracy
Jiri Prochazka 52%
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Navajo Stirling 339.50
4%
Avg takedowns attempted
Navajo Stirling 2.02
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Jiri Prochazka 1.35
3%
Head absorption rate
Jiri Prochazka 66%
3%
← pushes toward Jiri Prochazka pushes toward Navajo Stirling →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Jiri Prochazka

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
8.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
W KO
W KO
L KO
W KO
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Navajo Stirling

Win Streak
6
Finish Rate
60%
Avg Duration
10.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W KO
W KO
W DEC
W DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 205 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Jiri Prochazka
ADVANTAGE
Navajo Stirling
Striking Accuracy
52.4%
+0.7%
53.1%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.17
+1.10
5.27
Strikes Absorbed/Min
4.30
+1.87
2.44
Striking Defense
49.8%
+7.8%
57.6%
Takedown Accuracy
39.7%
+3.9%
35.8%
Takedown Defense
64.0%
+2.4%
66.4%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.41
+0.12
0.29
Avg Control Time (sec)
63.94
+6.29
70.23
Strikes Per Round
19.05
+4.05
23.11
Head Strike %
68.1%
+10.8%
57.2%
Body Strike %
18.5%
+8.5%
27.0%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+2.3%
15.8%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+40.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
60.0%
EVEN
60.0%