Manoel Sousa
"Manumito"
13-1-0
VS
2026-08-08
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld
Lightweight
Richie Miranda
"El Machete"
13-1-0
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Manoel Sousa 'Manumito'
61.9% CONFIDENCE
How It Ends
48%
Decision
32%
KO / TKO
20%
Submission
Decision48.3%
KO / TKO31.5%
Submission20.2%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 142.7%
Round 229.2%
Round 3+28.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 52% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Manoel Sousa
Richie Miranda
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Manoel Sousa
15%
Age
Manoel Sousa
9%
Avg takedowns attempted
Manoel Sousa
8%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
7%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Manoel Sousa
6%
Strikes absorbed/min
Manoel Sousa
5%
Elo rating
Richie Miranda
5%
Distance strike defense
Manoel Sousa
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Richie Miranda
4%
Finishing threat edge
Matchup
4%
Head absorption rate
Manoel Sousa
3%
Southpaw stance edge
Matchup
3%
Fights per year
Manoel Sousa
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Manoel Sousa
2%
← pushes toward Manoel Sousa pushes toward Richie Miranda →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Manoel Sousa

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Richie Miranda

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: Southpaw