Liu Ce
3-1-0
Thin UFC data
VS
Junior Tafa
"The Juggernaut"
6-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
60.7%
39.3%
Liu Ce
LightGBM
64.1%
35.9%
Liu Ce
Logistic (Core)
62.8%
37.2%
Liu Ce
CatBoost
currently viewing
59.0%
41.0%
Liu Ce
Ensemble
57.0%
43.0%
Liu Ce
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
38%
Decision
45%
KO / TKO
17%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 62%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Liu Ce
Junior Tafa
21%
13%
7%
7%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Liu Ce
pushes toward Junior Tafa →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Liu Ce
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A
Junior Tafa
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
5.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
W
KO
L
SUB
L
SUB
W
KO
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Liu Ce
ADVANTAGE
Junior Tafa
Striking Accuracy
Strikes Landed/Min
Strikes Absorbed/Min
Striking Defense
Takedown Accuracy
Takedown Defense
Knockdowns/Fight
Avg Control Time (sec)
Strikes Per Round
Head Strike %
Body Strike %
Leg Strike %
Last 5 Win Rate
Last 5 Finish Rate