Daniil Donchenko
13-2-0
VS
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
12-4-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
64.5%
35.5%
Daniil Donchenko
LightGBM
67.3%
32.7%
Daniil Donchenko
Logistic (Core)
75.1%
24.9%
Daniil Donchenko
CatBoost
69.5%
30.5%
Daniil Donchenko
Ensemble
67.2%
32.8%
Daniil Donchenko
With Odds · CatBoost
74.5%
25.5%
Daniil Donchenko
With Odds · Ensemble
currently viewing
69.2%
30.8%
Daniil Donchenko
With Odds · LightGBM
69.9%
30.1%
Daniil Donchenko
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
75.1%
24.9%
Daniil Donchenko
With Odds · XGBoost
67.9%
32.1%
Daniil Donchenko
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
53%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 47%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Daniil Donchenko
Punahele Soriano
17%
11%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Daniil Donchenko
pushes toward Punahele Soriano →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Daniil Donchenko
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
180 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Punahele Soriano
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
DEC
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
180 cm
Weight:
170 lbs
Reach:
183 cm
Stance:
Southpaw