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Donte Johnson
"Lock Jaw"
7-0-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Middleweight
Baisangur Susurkaev
"Hunter"
11-0-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Donte Johnson 'Lock Jaw'
58.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
57.7% 42.3%
Donte Johnson
LightGBM
61.2% 38.8%
Donte Johnson
Logistic (Core)
48.6% 51.4%
Baisangur Susurkaev
CatBoost
57.9% 42.1%
Donte Johnson
Ensemble
51.9% 48.1%
Donte Johnson
No Age · CatBoost
57.2% 42.8%
Donte Johnson
No Age · Ensemble
51.9% 48.1%
Donte Johnson
No Age · LightGBM
59.7% 40.3%
Donte Johnson
No Age · Logistic (Core)
50.1% 49.9%
Donte Johnson
No Age · XGBoost
53.4% 46.6%
Donte Johnson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost currently viewing
58.6% 41.4%
Donte Johnson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
51.1% 48.9%
Donte Johnson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
57.9% 42.1%
Donte Johnson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
48.2% 51.8%
Baisangur Susurkaev
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
52.1% 47.9%
Donte Johnson
With Odds · CatBoost
53.3% 46.7%
Donte Johnson
With Odds · Ensemble
52.6% 47.4%
Donte Johnson
With Odds · LightGBM
59.3% 40.7%
Donte Johnson
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
48.6% 51.4%
Baisangur Susurkaev
With Odds · XGBoost
55.7% 44.3%
Donte Johnson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
34%
KO / TKO
22%
Submission
Decision44.0%
KO / TKO34.4%
Submission21.7%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 149.4%
Round 229.5%
Round 3+21.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Donte Johnson
Baisangur Susurkaev
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Donte Johnson -1.18
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.15
11%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Baisangur Susurkaev -0.63
10%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -4
10%
Strikes absorbed/min
Donte Johnson 2.01
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Baisangur Susurkaev 4.19
5%
Age
Donte Johnson 27.8 yrs
5%
Distance strike defense
Baisangur Susurkaev 62%
4%
Age
Baisangur Susurkaev 25.8 yrs
4%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup 0.01
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Donte Johnson 1.89
3%
Fights per year
Donte Johnson 3.82
3%
Body strikes absorbed per min
Donte Johnson 0.37
2%
Elo rating edge
Matchup -9
2%
← pushes toward Donte Johnson pushes toward Baisangur Susurkaev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Donte Johnson

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
67%
Avg Duration
7.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Baisangur Susurkaev

Win Streak
3
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
10.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
W KO
W SUB
Height: 188 cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: 201 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Donte Johnson
ADVANTAGE
Baisangur Susurkaev
Striking Accuracy
43.6%
+6.9%
50.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.51
+1.84
4.35
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.01
+1.59
3.60
Striking Defense
58.1%
+0.1%
58.0%
Takedown Accuracy
46.8%
+15.4%
31.3%
Takedown Defense
69.1%
+2.5%
66.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.30
+0.03
0.27
Avg Control Time (sec)
84.89
+3.03
87.92
Strikes Per Round
13.36
+5.82
19.18
Head Strike %
67.5%
+10.7%
56.7%
Body Strike %
17.3%
+9.0%
26.4%
Leg Strike %
15.2%
+1.7%
16.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
EVEN
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
66.7%
+33.3%
100.0%