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Alexander Volkov
"Drago"
39-11-0
VS
2026-10-24
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev
Heavyweight
Rizvan Kuniev
12-3-1
LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Alexander Volkov 'Drago'
54.7% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
55.2% 44.8%
Alexander Volkov
LightGBM currently viewing
54.7% 45.3%
Alexander Volkov
Logistic (Core)
57.0% 43.0%
Alexander Volkov
CatBoost
53.7% 46.3%
Alexander Volkov
Ensemble
50.3% 49.7%
Alexander Volkov
No Age · CatBoost
51.0% 49.0%
Alexander Volkov
No Age · Ensemble
47.7% 52.3%
Rizvan Kuniev
No Age · LightGBM
50.4% 49.6%
Alexander Volkov
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.9% 45.1%
Alexander Volkov
No Age · XGBoost
54.8% 45.2%
Alexander Volkov
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
51.7% 48.3%
Alexander Volkov
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
49.6% 50.4%
Rizvan Kuniev
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
53.0% 47.0%
Alexander Volkov
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
56.4% 43.6%
Alexander Volkov
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
54.2% 45.8%
Alexander Volkov
With Odds · CatBoost
46.6% 53.4%
Rizvan Kuniev
With Odds · Ensemble
45.7% 54.3%
Rizvan Kuniev
With Odds · LightGBM
46.8% 53.2%
Rizvan Kuniev
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
57.0% 43.0%
Alexander Volkov
With Odds · XGBoost
43.6% 56.4%
Rizvan Kuniev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
50%
Decision
40%
KO / TKO
10%
Submission
Decision49.9%
KO / TKO40.5%
Submission9.6%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.1%
Round 231.3%
Round 3+17.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 50% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Alexander Volkov
Rizvan Kuniev
Elo rating edge
Matchup 96
12%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.25
12%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +34
9%
Age
Alexander Volkov 38.0 yrs
9%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.09
8%
Age
Rizvan Kuniev 34.6 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Alexander Volkov 1.34
4%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Alexander Volkov +0.44
3%
Distance strike defense
Rizvan Kuniev 58%
3%
Avg takedowns attempted
Rizvan Kuniev 1.18
3%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 5%
3%
Striking accuracy
Alexander Volkov 55%
3%
Fights per year
Alexander Volkov 2.01
2%
Head absorption rate
Alexander Volkov 58%
2%
← pushes toward Alexander Volkov pushes toward Rizvan Kuniev →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Alexander Volkov

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
13.9m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 201 cm
Weight: 261 lbs
Reach: 203 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Rizvan Kuniev

Win Streak
2
Finish Rate
33%
Avg Duration
13.7m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
W DEC
L DEC
Height: 193 cm
Weight: 240 lbs
Reach: 193 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Alexander Volkov
ADVANTAGE
Rizvan Kuniev
Striking Accuracy
55.5%
+8.1%
47.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.06
+0.74
3.32
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.75
+0.32
2.43
Striking Defense
54.3%
+2.4%
51.9%
Takedown Accuracy
40.7%
+3.2%
37.5%
Takedown Defense
59.6%
+20.9%
80.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.17
+0.14
0.30
Avg Control Time (sec)
71.99
+3.99
75.98
Strikes Per Round
18.89
+2.98
15.91
Head Strike %
54.2%
+13.7%
67.8%
Body Strike %
22.7%
+0.5%
22.2%
Leg Strike %
23.1%
+13.1%
10.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
80.0%
+13.3%
66.7%
Last 5 Finish Rate
20.0%
+13.3%
33.3%