Marina Spasic
"Maki Beki"
7-1-0
VS
Stephanie Luciano
"Rondinha"
7-2-1
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
36.7%
63.3%
Stephanie Luciano
LightGBM
36.3%
63.7%
Stephanie Luciano
Logistic (Core)
44.5%
55.5%
Stephanie Luciano
CatBoost
currently viewing
34.8%
65.2%
Stephanie Luciano
Ensemble
33.7%
66.3%
Stephanie Luciano
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
56%
Decision
21%
KO / TKO
23%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 44%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Marina Spasic
Stephanie Luciano
23%
9%
9%
7%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Marina Spasic
pushes toward Stephanie Luciano →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Marina Spasic
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
SUB
Height:
N/A cm
Weight:
115 lbs
Reach:
N/A cm
Stance:
N/A
Stephanie Luciano
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
SUB
W
SUB
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
168 cm
Weight:
115 lbs
Reach:
165 cm
Stance:
Orthodox