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Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
19-1-0
VS
2026-11-07
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brady
Welterweight
Sean Brady
18-2-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Gabriel Bonfim 'Marretinha'
55.6% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
51.8% 48.2%
Gabriel Bonfim
LightGBM
52.3% 47.7%
Gabriel Bonfim
Logistic (Core)
55.6% 44.4%
Gabriel Bonfim
CatBoost
56.2% 43.8%
Gabriel Bonfim
Ensemble
57.3% 42.7%
Gabriel Bonfim
No Age · CatBoost
48.9% 51.1%
Sean Brady
No Age · Ensemble
55.7% 44.3%
Gabriel Bonfim
No Age · LightGBM
53.6% 46.4%
Gabriel Bonfim
No Age · Logistic (Core)
50.2% 49.8%
Gabriel Bonfim
No Age · XGBoost
51.9% 48.1%
Gabriel Bonfim
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
52.3% 47.7%
Gabriel Bonfim
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
59.4% 40.6%
Gabriel Bonfim
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
55.0% 45.0%
Gabriel Bonfim
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
54.4% 45.6%
Gabriel Bonfim
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
56.7% 43.3%
Gabriel Bonfim
With Odds · CatBoost
50.8% 49.2%
Gabriel Bonfim
With Odds · Ensemble
57.2% 42.8%
Gabriel Bonfim
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
55.6% 44.4%
Gabriel Bonfim
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
55.6% 44.4%
Gabriel Bonfim
With Odds · XGBoost
55.8% 44.2%
Gabriel Bonfim
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
57%
Decision
24%
KO / TKO
19%
Submission
Decision56.7%
KO / TKO24.3%
Submission19.0%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 141.1%
Round 235.7%
Round 3+23.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 43% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Gabriel Bonfim
Sean Brady
Age
Sean Brady 34.0 yrs
13%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Gabriel Bonfim -1.66
9%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.62
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Sean Brady 5.24
7%
Strikes absorbed/min
Sean Brady 2.12
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Sean Brady +0.39
5%
Avg control time
Sean Brady 131.02
5%
Striking defense
Gabriel Bonfim 63%
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gabriel Bonfim 3.31
4%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
4%
Sub attempts/fight
Gabriel Bonfim 0.44
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +0
3%
Sub attempts/fight
Sean Brady 0.47
3%
Distance strike defense
Gabriel Bonfim 65%
3%
← pushes toward Gabriel Bonfim pushes toward Sean Brady →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Gabriel Bonfim

Win Streak
5
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
14.3m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
W KO
W DEC
W SUB
W DEC
Height: 185 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Sean Brady

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
14.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W DEC
L KO
W SUB
W DEC
W SUB
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 183 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Gabriel Bonfim
ADVANTAGE
Sean Brady
Striking Accuracy
47.8%
+1.7%
49.5%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.00
+0.39
3.61
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.13
+1.01
2.12
Striking Defense
63.1%
+6.1%
57.0%
Takedown Accuracy
43.3%
+1.8%
45.1%
Takedown Defense
70.6%
+2.5%
68.2%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.20
+0.08
0.12
Avg Control Time (sec)
76.24
+54.78
131.02
Strikes Per Round
18.72
+1.46
17.26
Head Strike %
59.4%
+13.3%
72.7%
Body Strike %
15.5%
+3.2%
12.3%
Leg Strike %
25.1%
+10.1%
15.0%
Last 5 Win Rate
100.0%
+20.0%
80.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
EVEN
40.0%