Magomed Ankalaev
21-2-1
VS
Bogdan Guskov
"Hitman"
18-3-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
67.4%
32.6%
Magomed Ankalaev
LightGBM
currently viewing
66.8%
33.2%
Magomed Ankalaev
Logistic (Core)
66.8%
33.2%
Magomed Ankalaev
CatBoost
61.1%
38.9%
Magomed Ankalaev
Ensemble
68.8%
31.2%
Magomed Ankalaev
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
46%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
12%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 54%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Magomed Ankalaev
Bogdan Guskov
15%
10%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
← pushes toward Magomed Ankalaev
pushes toward Bogdan Guskov →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Magomed Ankalaev
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
L
KO
W
DEC
W
DEC
W
KO
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
190 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Bogdan Guskov
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
D
DEC
W
KO
W
SUB
W
KO
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
Orthodox