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Montel Jackson
"Quik"
15-3-0
VS
2026-09-26
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
Bantamweight
Ricky Simon
22-7-0
RECENCY-HEAVY · CATBOOST PREDICTION
Montel Jackson 'Quik'
65.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
65.8% 34.2%
Montel Jackson
LightGBM
69.2% 30.8%
Montel Jackson
Logistic (Core)
69.1% 30.9%
Montel Jackson
CatBoost
68.1% 31.9%
Montel Jackson
Ensemble
70.3% 29.7%
Montel Jackson
market-margin__xgb-full
74.0% 26.0%
Montel Jackson
No Age · CatBoost
70.2% 29.8%
Montel Jackson
No Age · Ensemble
74.1% 25.9%
Montel Jackson
No Age · LightGBM
71.1% 28.9%
Montel Jackson
No Age · Logistic (Core)
72.6% 27.4%
Montel Jackson
No Age · XGBoost
73.3% 26.7%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost currently viewing
65.2% 34.8%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
69.9% 30.1%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
71.4% 28.6%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
67.4% 32.6%
Montel Jackson
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
71.1% 28.9%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · CatBoost
68.4% 31.6%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · Ensemble
70.0% 30.0%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · LightGBM
66.6% 33.4%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
69.1% 30.9%
Montel Jackson
With Odds · XGBoost
65.8% 34.2%
Montel Jackson
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
60%
Decision
29%
KO / TKO
11%
Submission
Decision59.8%
KO / TKO28.9%
Submission11.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 145.9%
Round 229.0%
Round 3+25.1%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 40% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why CatBoost leans this way
Montel Jackson
Ricky Simon
Net striking dominance
Matchup +1.86
17%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup -11
10%
Age
Montel Jackson 34.4 yrs
7%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Montel Jackson -0.40
6%
Age
Ricky Simon 34.1 yrs
6%
Avg takedowns attempted
Ricky Simon 6.05
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Ricky Simon -0.37
5%
Defensive skill edge
Matchup -0.05
4%
Head-strike accuracy edge
Matchup 12%
4%
Reach edge
Matchup +15.2 cm
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Montel Jackson 1.76
3%
Control time conceded
Ricky Simon 47.37
2%
Distance strike defense
Montel Jackson 60%
2%
Avg takedowns attempted
Montel Jackson 2.74
2%
← pushes toward Montel Jackson pushes toward Ricky Simon →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Montel Jackson

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
9.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
W KO
Height: 178 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Ricky Simon

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
20%
Avg Duration
12.8m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
D DEC
L DEC
W DEC
W KO
L DEC
Height: 168 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Montel Jackson
ADVANTAGE
Ricky Simon
Striking Accuracy
47.7%
+6.7%
41.0%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.50
+0.51
3.01
Strikes Absorbed/Min
1.76
+2.37
4.12
Striking Defense
55.4%
+2.8%
58.2%
Takedown Accuracy
40.9%
+10.2%
30.6%
Takedown Defense
64.8%
+7.4%
72.3%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.54
+0.32
0.23
Avg Control Time (sec)
76.95
+7.69
84.64
Strikes Per Round
13.64
+1.75
15.40
Head Strike %
66.6%
+2.7%
69.2%
Body Strike %
19.2%
+1.8%
17.5%
Leg Strike %
14.2%
+0.9%
13.3%
Last 5 Win Rate
60.0%
+20.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+20.0%
20.0%