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Julien Leblanc
10-2-0
Thin UFC data
VS
2026-10-17
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Middleweight
Gilbert Urbina
"The RGV Bad Boy"
7-5-0
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Gilbert Urbina 'The RGV Bad Boy'
52.5% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
42.4% 57.6%
Gilbert Urbina
LightGBM
38.4% 61.6%
Gilbert Urbina
Logistic (Core)
45.6% 54.4%
Gilbert Urbina
CatBoost
38.7% 61.3%
Gilbert Urbina
Ensemble
35.9% 64.1%
Gilbert Urbina
No Age · CatBoost
47.5% 52.5%
Gilbert Urbina
No Age · Ensemble
45.5% 54.5%
Gilbert Urbina
No Age · LightGBM
49.2% 50.8%
Gilbert Urbina
No Age · Logistic (Core)
53.3% 46.7%
Julien Leblanc
No Age · XGBoost
46.7% 53.3%
Gilbert Urbina
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
37.7% 62.3%
Gilbert Urbina
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
33.1% 66.9%
Gilbert Urbina
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
34.0% 66.0%
Gilbert Urbina
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
45.2% 54.8%
Gilbert Urbina
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
36.4% 63.6%
Gilbert Urbina
With Odds · CatBoost
48.5% 51.5%
Gilbert Urbina
With Odds · Ensemble
47.8% 52.2%
Gilbert Urbina
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
47.5% 52.5%
Gilbert Urbina
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
45.6% 54.4%
Gilbert Urbina
With Odds · XGBoost
52.7% 47.3%
Julien Leblanc
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
32%
Decision
50%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision31.8%
KO / TKO49.8%
Submission18.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 162.4%
Round 228.0%
Round 3+9.6%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 68% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Julien Leblanc
Gilbert Urbina
Age
Julien Leblanc 34.7 yrs
17%
Avg takedowns attempted
Gilbert Urbina 1.85
8%
Net striking dominance
Matchup -0.20
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Julien Leblanc 2.11
7%
Last 2 avg fight time
Julien Leblanc 142
6%
Distance strike defense
Julien Leblanc 59%
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Julien Leblanc
5%
Round 1 strike output
Julien Leblanc 11.01
4%
Distance strike defense
Gilbert Urbina 59%
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Gilbert Urbina 62
3%
Fights per year
Julien Leblanc 0
3%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
3%
Striking defense
Julien Leblanc 55%
3%
Striking defense
Gilbert Urbina 54%
2%
← pushes toward Julien Leblanc pushes toward Gilbert Urbina →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Julien Leblanc

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
2.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L SUB
Height: N/A cm
Weight: 185 lbs
Reach: N/A cm
Stance: N/A

Gilbert Urbina

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
4.4m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
L SUB
Height: 190 cm
Weight: 170 lbs
Reach: 190 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Julien Leblanc
ADVANTAGE
Gilbert Urbina
Striking Accuracy
45.5%
+4.8%
50.3%
Strikes Landed/Min
2.46
+1.07
3.52
Strikes Absorbed/Min
2.59
+0.04
2.63
Striking Defense
54.6%
+0.4%
54.1%
Takedown Accuracy
37.5%
+1.4%
38.9%
Takedown Defense
58.4%
+3.2%
61.6%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.18
+0.29
0.48
Avg Control Time (sec)
79.50
+9.52
69.98
Strikes Per Round
13.59
+2.64
16.23
Head Strike %
62.2%
+3.4%
65.6%
Body Strike %
21.3%
+1.8%
19.5%
Leg Strike %
16.5%
+1.6%
14.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
0.0%
+40.0%
40.0%