Oumar Sy
12-1-0
VS
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
19-6-0
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
76.8%
23.2%
Oumar Sy
LightGBM
74.0%
26.0%
Oumar Sy
Logistic (Core)
72.1%
27.9%
Oumar Sy
CatBoost
75.3%
24.7%
Oumar Sy
Ensemble
76.6%
23.4%
Oumar Sy
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
72.3%
27.7%
Oumar Sy
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
74.6%
25.4%
Oumar Sy
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
74.9%
25.1%
Oumar Sy
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
69.5%
30.5%
Oumar Sy
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
74.8%
25.2%
Oumar Sy
With Odds · CatBoost
74.8%
25.2%
Oumar Sy
With Odds · Ensemble
76.9%
23.1%
Oumar Sy
With Odds · LightGBM
currently viewing
76.2%
23.8%
Oumar Sy
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
72.1%
27.9%
Oumar Sy
With Odds · XGBoost
77.6%
22.4%
Oumar Sy
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
44%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
14%
Submission
If it's a finish, which round
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 56%
estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Oumar Sy
Modestas Bukauskas
22%
8%
8%
7%
6%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
← pushes toward Oumar Sy
pushes toward Modestas Bukauskas →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed
the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages
are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.
Oumar Sy
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L
KO
L
SUB
W
KO
L
DEC
W
DEC
Height:
193 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
211 cm
Stance:
Orthodox
Modestas Bukauskas
Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W
KO
W
DEC
L
KO
W
KO
W
DEC
Height:
190 cm
Weight:
205 lbs
Reach:
193 cm
Stance:
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