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Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22-6-0
VS
2026-07-11
UFC 329
Welterweight
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-8-0
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
Conor McGregor 'The Notorious'
53.2% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
47.7% 52.3%
Max Holloway
LightGBM
44.1% 55.9%
Max Holloway
Logistic (Core)
44.3% 55.7%
Max Holloway
CatBoost
50.4% 49.6%
Conor McGregor
Ensemble currently viewing
53.2% 46.8%
Conor McGregor
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
45%
Decision
42%
KO / TKO
13%
Submission
Decision44.8%
KO / TKO42.1%
Submission13.1%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 151.3%
Round 228.7%
Round 3+20.0%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 55% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why XGBoost leans this way
Conor McGregor
Max Holloway
Net striking dominance
Matchup
15%
Age
Conor McGregor
10%
Age
Max Holloway
8%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Max Holloway
7%
Avg takedowns attempted
Max Holloway
6%
Reach edge
Matchup
5%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Conor McGregor
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Max Holloway
4%
Fights per year
Conor McGregor
4%
Last 2 avg fight time
Conor McGregor
3%
Elo rating edge
Matchup
3%
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup
3%
Distance strike defense
Conor McGregor
3%
Strikes absorbed/min
Max Holloway
2%
← pushes toward Conor McGregor pushes toward Max Holloway →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Conor McGregor

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
L KO
L KO
L KO
W KO
L SUB
Height: 175 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 188 cm
Stance: Southpaw

Max Holloway

Win Streak
N/A
Finish Rate
N/A%
Avg Duration
N/Am
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
L DEC
W DEC
L KO
W KO
Height: 180 cm
Weight: 155 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox