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Adrian Yanez
17-6-0
VS
2026-11-14
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit
Bantamweight
Juan Diaz
"Pegajoso"
15-1-1
Thin UFC data
WITH ODDS · LIGHTGBM PREDICTION
Juan Diaz 'Pegajoso'
60.0% CONFIDENCE
What Every Model Says
XGBoost
38.8% 61.2%
Juan Diaz
LightGBM
42.6% 57.4%
Juan Diaz
Logistic (Core)
51.0% 49.0%
Adrian Yanez
CatBoost
46.5% 53.5%
Juan Diaz
Ensemble
43.9% 56.1%
Juan Diaz
No Age · CatBoost
48.9% 51.1%
Juan Diaz
No Age · Ensemble
45.4% 54.6%
Juan Diaz
No Age · LightGBM
47.0% 53.0%
Juan Diaz
No Age · Logistic (Core)
54.2% 45.8%
Adrian Yanez
No Age · XGBoost
42.9% 57.1%
Juan Diaz
Recency-Heavy · CatBoost
52.6% 47.4%
Adrian Yanez
Recency-Heavy · Ensemble
50.0% 50.0%
Juan Diaz
Recency-Heavy · LightGBM
50.1% 49.9%
Adrian Yanez
Recency-Heavy · Logistic (Core)
51.9% 48.1%
Adrian Yanez
Recency-Heavy · XGBoost
42.2% 57.8%
Juan Diaz
With Odds · CatBoost
45.9% 54.1%
Juan Diaz
With Odds · Ensemble
41.5% 58.5%
Juan Diaz
With Odds · LightGBM currently viewing
40.0% 60.0%
Juan Diaz
With Odds · Logistic (Core)
51.0% 49.0%
Adrian Yanez
With Odds · XGBoost
37.4% 62.6%
Juan Diaz
Click a model to view the fight through its eyes — probabilities, prediction and explanation update.
How It Ends
49%
Decision
33%
KO / TKO
18%
Submission
Decision48.5%
KO / TKO33.0%
Submission18.4%
If it's a finish, which round
Round 150.9%
Round 230.8%
Round 3+18.2%
A separate model trained only on how fights end (not who wins) — 51% estimated chance this fight is finished rather than going to a decision.
Why LightGBM leans this way
Adrian Yanez
Juan Diaz
Experience edge (total fights)
Matchup +6
15%
Age
Juan Diaz 28.4 yrs
12%
Market latest prob diff
Matchup
8%
Avg takedowns attempted
Juan Diaz 4.24
8%
Age
Adrian Yanez 33.0 yrs
7%
Sub attempts/fight
Adrian Yanez 0.16
5%
Avg takedowns attempted
Adrian Yanez 1.42
5%
Sub attempts/fight
Juan Diaz 0.51
4%
Head absorption rate
Juan Diaz 60%
3%
Distance strike defense
Juan Diaz 60%
3%
Round 1 strike output
Adrian Yanez 21.81
3%
Net striking dominance
Matchup +0.12
2%
Strikes absorbed/min
Adrian Yanez 3.81
2%
Strike rate delta r1 to r3
Adrian Yanez -0.14
2%
← pushes toward Adrian Yanez pushes toward Juan Diaz →
Bars show each factor's SHAP contribution to this specific prediction — how much it pushed the win probability toward one fighter, given everything else the model knows. Percentages are each factor's share of the total push across the top 30 factors.

Adrian Yanez

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
40%
Avg Duration
8.6m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W KO
D DEC
L DEC
W KO
L KO
Height: 170 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 178 cm
Stance: Orthodox

Juan Diaz

Win Streak
1
Finish Rate
100%
Avg Duration
9.1m
Last 5 fights (most recent first)
W SUB
Height: 173 cm
Weight: 135 lbs
Reach: 175 cm
Stance: Orthodox
Head-to-Head Stats
Adrian Yanez
ADVANTAGE
Juan Diaz
Striking Accuracy
43.5%
+2.1%
45.7%
Strikes Landed/Min
4.32
+1.73
2.59
Strikes Absorbed/Min
3.81
+1.15
2.66
Striking Defense
56.4%
+1.3%
55.1%
Takedown Accuracy
36.0%
+10.5%
46.5%
Takedown Defense
64.2%
+1.7%
62.5%
Knockdowns/Fight
0.51
+0.33
0.18
Avg Control Time (sec)
60.87
+24.62
85.50
Strikes Per Round
19.99
+5.19
14.80
Head Strike %
71.0%
+10.7%
60.3%
Body Strike %
15.6%
+5.3%
20.9%
Leg Strike %
13.5%
+5.4%
18.9%
Last 5 Win Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%
Last 5 Finish Rate
40.0%
+60.0%
100.0%